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AustalASX:ASB -0.46%64 Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is A$3.79 as of Aug. 17, 2026, which is 100% below its 10-year median of 1.16. GuruFocus rates ASX:ASB with a GF Score™ of 64/100 and a GF Value™ of A$3.28 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 4 warning signs investors should review. Among 195 Aerospace & Defense companies, Austal ranks better than 87.18% on this metric.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
As of today (2026-08-17), Austal's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is A$3.79. The stock price of Austal is A$4.34. Therefore, Austal's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 1.2.
The historical rank and industry rank for Austal's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:
ASX:ASB'
s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.57 Med: 1.16 Max: 1.92
Current: 1.15
During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Austal was 1.92. The lowest was 0.57. And the median was 1.16.
ASX:ASB's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked better than 87.18% of 195
companies
in the Aerospace & Defense industry
Industry Median: 3.05
vs ASX:ASB: 1.15
The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.
Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.
Austal's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as
Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF
=
Share Price
/
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=
4.34
/
3.791707273034
=
1.14
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Austal Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms
Austal Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Austal's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
ASX:ASB vs SPCX, GE, RTX: Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Comparison
For the Aerospace & Defense subindustry, Austal's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Austal Price-to-Projected-FCF vs Aerospace & Defense Industry
For the Aerospace & Defense industry and Industrials sector, Austal's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Austal's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.
The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of A$3.79 mean?
Austal (ASX:ASB) has a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of A$3.79 as of Aug. 17, 2026. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Austal and its competitors. This is 227% above median its historical median of 1.16. Over the past decade, Austal's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF has ranged from 0.57 to 1.92. According to the industry distribution chart, Austal ranks #25 out of 195 companies in the Aerospace & Defense industry, placing it in the top 12.8%.
Is Austal's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF too high?
Austal's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of A$3.79 is 227% above median its 10-year median of 1.16. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 0.57 to a high of 1.92. Based on the distribution chart, Austal ranks #25 out of 195 companies in the Aerospace & Defense industry, which is in the top quartile — a strong position relative to peers. Overall, Austal has a GF Score™ of 64/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Austal's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF compare to SPCX and GE?
According to the Aerospace & Defense industry distribution chart, Austal ranks #25 out of 195 companies for Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF. This places Austal in the top 13% of its industry — outperforming the majority of peers. The industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 3.05. Historically, Austal's own Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF has ranged from 0.57 to 1.92 over the past decade. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for an Aerospace & Defense company?
The median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF among Aerospace & Defense companies is 3.05, based on 195 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Austal and its competitors. For the Aerospace & Defense industry, the median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 3.05 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Austal's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is A$3.79, which is 227% above median its own 10-year median of 1.16. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Austal stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Austal (ASX:ASB) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is A$3.28, compared to a current price of A$4.34 — trading 32.3% above its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is A$3.79, which is 227% above median its 10-year median of 1.16. Austal's overall GF Score™ is 64/100 with 4 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF calculated?
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Austal (ASX:ASB), the current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is A$3.79 as of Aug. 17, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Austal (ASX:ASB) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Austal stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of A$4.34 is trading 32.3% above its estimated GF Value™ of A$3.28.
GuruFocus considers Austal to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for ASX:ASB:
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF: A$3.79 (227% above median its 10-year median of 1.16)
GF Value™: A$3.28 vs. price of A$4.34 (32.3% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the ASX:ASB stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Austal Ltd is engaged in designing, constructing, and supporting revolutionary defense and commercial vessels. The company designs, constructs, and supports passenger ferries, vehicle passenger ferries, and offshore and windfarm vessels; naval vessels; naval surface warfare combatants; and patrol boats for government law enforcement and border protection agencies. Its reportable segments are USA Shipbuilding; USA Support; Australasia Shipbuilding and Australasia Support. Maximum revenue is generated from its USA Shipbuilding segment which manufactures high performance defence vessels for U.S. Navy and Coast Guard. Geographically, the company derives a majority of its revenue from the United States of America and the rest from Australia, Europe, Asia, South America, and the Middle East.
64GF Score
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Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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