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Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.
Alibaba Group HoldingBABA -8.57%79 Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $156.75 as of Aug. 22, 2026, which is 12541% above its 10-year median of 1.24. GuruFocus rates BABA with a GF Score™ of 79/100 and a GF Value™ of $118.62 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 4 warning signs investors should review. Among 769 Retail - Cyclical companies, Alibaba Group Holding ranks worse than 51.11% on this metric.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
The historical rank and industry rank for Alibaba Group Holding's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:
BABA'
s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.36 Med: 1.24 Max: 4.48
Current: 0.76
During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Alibaba Group Holding was 4.48. The lowest was 0.36. And the median was 1.24.
BABA's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked worse than 51.11% of 769
companies
in the Retail - Cyclical industry
Industry Median: 0.78
vs BABA: 0.76
Alibaba Group Holding (NYSE:BABA) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation
The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.
Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.
Alibaba Group Holding's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as
Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF
=
Share Price
/
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=
119.34
/
156.75083656963
=
0.76
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Alibaba Group Holding Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms
Alibaba Group Holding Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Alibaba Group Holding's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Alibaba Group Holding Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart
BABA vs PDD, MELI, DASH: Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Comparison
For the Internet Retail subindustry, Alibaba Group Holding's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Alibaba Group Holding Price-to-Projected-FCF vs Retail - Cyclical Industry
For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Alibaba Group Holding's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Alibaba Group Holding's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.
Alibaba Group Holding Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.
The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $156.75 mean?
Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) has a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $156.75 as of Aug. 22, 2026. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Alibaba Group Holding and its competitors. This is 12541% above median its historical median of 1.24. Over the past decade, Alibaba Group Holding's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF has ranged from 0.36 to 4.48. According to the industry distribution chart, Alibaba Group Holding ranks #393 out of 769 companies in the Retail - Cyclical industry, placing it in the top 51.1%.
Is Alibaba Group Holding's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF too high?
Alibaba Group Holding's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $156.75 is 12541% above median its 10-year median of 1.24. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 0.36 to a high of 4.48. The Retail - Cyclical industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.78. Alibaba Group Holding's value of $156.75 is 19996.2% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Alibaba Group Holding ranks #393 out of 769 companies in the Retail - Cyclical industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, Alibaba Group Holding has a GF Score™ of 79/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Alibaba Group Holding's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF compare to PDD and MELI?
According to the Retail - Cyclical industry distribution chart, Alibaba Group Holding ranks #393 out of 769 companies for Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF. This places Alibaba Group Holding in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.78. Alibaba Group Holding's value of $156.75 is 19996.2% above this benchmark. Historically, Alibaba Group Holding's own Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF has ranged from 0.36 to 4.48 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 1.24 vs. the industry median of 0.78, Alibaba Group Holding has consistently been above the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for a Retail - Cyclical company?
The median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF among Retail - Cyclical companies is 0.78, based on 769 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Alibaba Group Holding's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $156.75 is 19996.2% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Alibaba Group Holding and its competitors. For the Retail - Cyclical industry, the median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.78 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Alibaba Group Holding's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $156.75, which is 12541% above median its own 10-year median of 1.24. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Alibaba Group Holding stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is $118.62, compared to a current price of $119.34 — trading 0.6% above its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $156.75, which is 12541% above median its 10-year median of 1.24 and 19996.2% above the Retail - Cyclical industry median of 0.78. Alibaba Group Holding's overall GF Score™ is 79/100 with 4 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF calculated?
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Alibaba Group Holding (BABA), the current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $156.75 as of Aug. 22, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Alibaba Group Holding stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $119.34 is trading 0.6% above its estimated GF Value™ of $118.62.
GuruFocus considers Alibaba Group Holding to be Fairly Valued.
Key valuation signals for BABA:
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF: $156.75 (12541% above median its 10-year median of 1.24)
GF Value™: $118.62 vs. price of $119.34 (0.6% above fair value)
Industry Position: 19996.2% above the Retail - Cyclical median (#393 of 769)
No single metric tells the full story. See the BABA stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Alibaba is the world's largest online and mobile commerce company as measured by gross merchandise volume. It operates China's online marketplaces, including Taobao (consumer-to-consumer) and Tmall (business-to-consumer). The China retail e-commerce platform is the most valuable cash flow-generating business at Alibaba. Additional revenue sources include China wholesale e-commerce, international retail and wholesale e-commerce, local consumer services, travel services, cloud computing, digital media and entertainment, Cainiao logistics services, and other businesses.
79GF Score
Get the complete analysis for BABA
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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