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Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.
Alibaba Group HoldingBABA +5.10%77 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 12.00% as of Mar. 2026, which is 88% above its 10-year median of 6.39. GuruFocus rates BABA with a GF Score™ of 77/100 and a GF Value™ of $120.36 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 5 warning signs investors should review. Among 796 Retail - Cyclical companies, Alibaba Group Holding ranks better than 50% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Alibaba Group Holding's forward rate of return for was 12.00%.
The historical rank and industry rank for Alibaba Group Holding's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
BABA'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -5.71 Med: 6.39 Max: 21.21
Current: 12.17
During the past 13 years, Alibaba Group Holding's highest Forward Rate of Return was 21.21. The lowest was -5.71. And the median was 6.39.
BABA's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked better than 50% of 796
companies
in the Retail - Cyclical industry
Industry Median: 12.58
vs BABA: 12.17
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
Alibaba Group Holding (NYSE:BABA) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
Alibaba Group Holding Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
Alibaba Group Holding Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Alibaba Group Holding's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Alibaba Group Holding Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart
BABA vs PDD, MELI, DASH: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Internet Retail subindustry, Alibaba Group Holding's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Alibaba Group Holding Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Retail - Cyclical Industry
For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Alibaba Group Holding's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Alibaba Group Holding's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
Alibaba Group Holding Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 12.00% mean?
Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 12.00% as of Mar. 2026. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Alibaba Group Holding and its competitors. This is 88% above median its historical median of 6.39. According to the industry distribution chart, Alibaba Group Holding ranks #398 out of 796 companies in the Retail - Cyclical industry, placing it in the top 50%.
Is Alibaba Group Holding's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
Alibaba Group Holding's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 12.00% is 88% above median its 10-year median of 6.39. The Retail - Cyclical industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 12.58. Alibaba Group Holding's value of 12.00% is 4.6% below this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Alibaba Group Holding ranks #398 out of 796 companies in the Retail - Cyclical industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, Alibaba Group Holding has a GF Score™ of 77/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Alibaba Group Holding's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to PDD and MELI?
According to the Retail - Cyclical industry distribution chart, Alibaba Group Holding ranks #398 out of 796 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This puts Alibaba Group Holding in the upper half of its industry. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 12.58. Alibaba Group Holding's value of 12.00% is 4.6% below this benchmark. While the company's 10-year median is 6.39 vs. the industry median of 12.58, Alibaba Group Holding has consistently been below the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a Retail - Cyclical company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Retail - Cyclical companies is 12.58, based on 796 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Alibaba Group Holding's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 12.00% is 4.6% below the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Alibaba Group Holding and its competitors. For the Retail - Cyclical industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 12.58 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Alibaba Group Holding's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 12.00%, which is 88% above median its own 10-year median of 6.39. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Alibaba Group Holding stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is $120.36, compared to a current price of $122.25 — trading 1.6% above its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 12.00%, which is 88% above median its 10-year median of 6.39 and 4.6% below the Retail - Cyclical industry median of 12.58. Alibaba Group Holding's overall GF Score™ is 77/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Alibaba Group Holding (BABA), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 12.00% as of Mar. 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Alibaba Group Holding stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $122.25 is trading 1.6% above its estimated GF Value™ of $120.36.
GuruFocus considers Alibaba Group Holding to be Fairly Valued.
Key valuation signals for BABA:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: 12.00% (88% above median its 10-year median of 6.39)
GF Value™: $120.36 vs. price of $122.25 (1.6% above fair value)
Industry Position: 4.6% below the Retail - Cyclical median (#398 of 796)
No single metric tells the full story. See the BABA stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Alibaba is the world's largest online and mobile commerce company as measured by gross merchandise volume. It operates China's online marketplaces, including Taobao (consumer-to-consumer) and Tmall (business-to-consumer). The China retail e-commerce platform is the most valuable cash flow-generating business at Alibaba. Additional revenue sources include China wholesale e-commerce, international retail and wholesale e-commerce, local consumer services, travel services, cloud computing, digital media and entertainment, Cainiao logistics services, and other businesses.
77GF Score
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Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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