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Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
The historical rank and industry rank for Empire State Realty Trust's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:
ESRT'
s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.32 Med: 0.91 Max: 3.34
Current: 0.32
During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Empire State Realty Trust was 3.34. The lowest was 0.32. And the median was 0.91.
ESRT's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked better than 85.53% of 615
companies
in the REITs industry
Industry Median: 0.65
vs ESRT: 0.32
Empire State Realty Trust (NYSE:ESRT) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation
The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.
Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.
Empire State Realty Trust's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as
Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF
=
Share Price
/
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=
4.59
/
14.236153670224
=
0.32
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Empire State Realty Trust Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms
Empire State Realty Trust Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data
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The historical data trend for Empire State Realty Trust's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Empire State Realty Trust Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart
ESRT vs JBGS, SAFE, CTO: Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Comparison
For the REIT - Diversified subindustry, Empire State Realty Trust's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Empire State Realty Trust Price-to-Projected-FCF vs REITs Industry
For the REITs industry and Real Estate sector, Empire State Realty Trust's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Empire State Realty Trust's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.
Empire State Realty Trust Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.
The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $14.24 mean?
Empire State Realty Trust (ESRT) has a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $14.24 as of Aug. 29, 2026. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Empire State Realty Trust and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Empire State Realty Trust ranks #89 out of 615 companies in the REITs industry, placing it in the top 14.5%.
Is Empire State Realty Trust's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF too high?
Empire State Realty Trust's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $14.24. The REITs industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.65. Empire State Realty Trust's value of $14.24 is 2090.8% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Empire State Realty Trust ranks #89 out of 615 companies in the REITs industry, which is in the top quartile — a strong position relative to peers. Overall, Empire State Realty Trust has a GF Score™ of 63/100 and is considered Possible Value Trap, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Empire State Realty Trust's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF compare to JBGS and SAFE?
According to the REITs industry distribution chart, Empire State Realty Trust ranks #89 out of 615 companies for Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF. This places Empire State Realty Trust in the top 15% of its industry — outperforming the majority of peers. The industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.65. Empire State Realty Trust's value of $14.24 is 2090.8% above this benchmark. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for a REITs company?
The median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF among REITs companies is 0.65, based on 615 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Empire State Realty Trust's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $14.24 is 2090.8% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Empire State Realty Trust and its competitors. For the REITs industry, the median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.65 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Empire State Realty Trust's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $14.24. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Empire State Realty Trust stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Empire State Realty Trust (ESRT) is currently considered Possible Value Trap. The stock's GF Value™ is $8.61, compared to a current price of $4.59 — trading 46.7% below its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $14.24 and 2090.8% above the REITs industry median of 0.65. Empire State Realty Trust's overall GF Score™ is 63/100 with 4 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF calculated?
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Empire State Realty Trust (ESRT), the current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $14.24 as of Aug. 29, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Empire State Realty Trust (ESRT) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Empire State Realty Trust stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of $4.59 is trading 46.7% below its estimated GF Value™ of $8.61.
GuruFocus considers Empire State Realty Trust to be Possible Value Trap.
Key valuation signals for ESRT:
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF: $14.24
GF Value™: $8.61 vs. price of $4.59 (46.7% below fair value)
Industry Position: 2090.8% above the REITs median (#89 of 615)
No single metric tells the full story. See the ESRT stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Empire State Realty Trust Inc is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns and operates office, retail, and multifamily properties located in New York City, prominently in Manhattan. Its portfolio includes office and retail space as well as residential units. The company's objective is to maximize cash flow and total returns to its shareholders and to increase the value of the properties. Its reportable segments consist of a real estate segment and an Observatory segment. The majority of revenue is derived from the Real Estate segment, which includes all activities related to the ownership, management, operation, acquisition, redevelopment, repositioning and disposition of its traditional real estate assets.
63GF Score
Get the complete analysis for ESRT
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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