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DiageoHAM:GUI -2.53%64 Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is €16.13 as of Jul. 24, 2026, which is 100% below its 10-year median of 2.32. GuruFocus rates HAM:GUI with a GF Score™ of 64/100 and a GF Value™ of €28.49 (Significantly Undervalued). The stock has 5 warning signs investors should review. Among 158 Beverages - Alcoholic companies, Diageo ranks worse than 56.33% on this metric.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
As of today (2026-07-24), Diageo's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is €16.13. The stock price of Diageo is €18.075. Therefore, Diageo's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 1.1.
The historical rank and industry rank for Diageo's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:
HAM:GUI'
s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 1.12 Med: 2.32 Max: 3.09
Current: 1.12
During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Diageo was 3.09. The lowest was 1.12. And the median was 2.32.
HAM:GUI's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked worse than 56.33% of 158
companies
in the Beverages - Alcoholic industry
Industry Median: 1.015
vs HAM:GUI: 1.12
The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.
Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.
Diageo's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as
Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF
=
Share Price
/
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=
18.075
/
16.658484504795
=
1.09
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Diageo Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms
Diageo Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Diageo's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
HAM:GUI vs BF.B: Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Comparison
For the Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries subindustry, Diageo's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Diageo Price-to-Projected-FCF vs Beverages - Alcoholic Industry
For the Beverages - Alcoholic industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Diageo's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Diageo's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.
The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of €16.13 mean?
Diageo (HAM:GUI) has a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of €16.13 as of Jul. 24, 2026. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Diageo and its competitors. This is 595% above median its historical median of 2.32. Over the past decade, Diageo's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF has ranged from 1.12 to 3.09. According to the industry distribution chart, Diageo ranks #89 out of 158 companies in the Beverages - Alcoholic industry, placing it in the top 56.3%.
Is Diageo's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF too high?
Diageo's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of €16.13 is 595% above median its 10-year median of 2.32. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 1.12 to a high of 3.09. Based on the distribution chart, Diageo ranks #89 out of 158 companies in the Beverages - Alcoholic industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, Diageo has a GF Score™ of 64/100 and is considered Significantly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Diageo's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF compare to BF.B?
According to the Beverages - Alcoholic industry distribution chart, Diageo ranks #89 out of 158 companies for Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF. This places Diageo in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 1.02. Historically, Diageo's own Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF has ranged from 1.12 to 3.09 over the past decade. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for a Beverages - Alcoholic company?
The median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF among Beverages - Alcoholic companies is 1.02, based on 158 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Diageo and its competitors. For the Beverages - Alcoholic industry, the median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 1.02 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Diageo's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is €16.13, which is 595% above median its own 10-year median of 2.32. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Diageo stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Diageo (HAM:GUI) is currently considered Significantly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is €28.49, compared to a current price of €18.08 — trading 36.6% below its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is €16.13, which is 595% above median its 10-year median of 2.32. Diageo's overall GF Score™ is 64/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF calculated?
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Diageo (HAM:GUI), the current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is €16.13 as of Jul. 24, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Diageo (HAM:GUI) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Diageo stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of €18.08 is trading 36.6% below its estimated GF Value™ of €28.49.
GuruFocus considers Diageo to be Significantly Undervalued.
Key valuation signals for HAM:GUI:
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF: €16.13 (595% above median its 10-year median of 2.32)
GF Value™: €28.49 vs. price of €18.08 (36.6% below fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the HAM:GUI stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Formed in 1997 through the merger of Grand Metropolitan and Guinness, Diageo is the largest distiller globally by sales. Diageo acquired some of the Seagram assets in 2001, which gave it brands such as Captain Morgan rum and Crown Royal Canadian whisky. Since then, mergers and acquisitions have mostly been bolt-on in nature, plugging gaps in the company's product and geographic portfolio.
64GF Score
Get the complete analysis for HAM:GUI
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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