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Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.
PagerDutyPD -0.45%67 Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $10.64 as of Aug. 20, 2026, which is 247% above its 10-year median of 3.07. GuruFocus rates PD with a GF Score™ of 67/100 and a GF Value™ of $21.87 (Possible Value Trap). The stock has 6 warning signs investors should review. Among 1,459 Software companies, PagerDuty ranks better than 59.63% on this metric.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
As of today (2026-08-20), PagerDuty's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $10.64. The stock price of PagerDuty is $12.115. Therefore, PagerDuty's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 1.1.
The historical rank and industry rank for PagerDuty's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:
PD'
s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.63 Med: 3.07 Max: 10.25
Current: 1.14
During the past 9 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of PagerDuty was 10.25. The lowest was 0.63. And the median was 3.07.
PD's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked better than 59.63% of 1459
companies
in the Software industry
Industry Median: 1.43
vs PD: 1.14
The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.
Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.
PagerDuty's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as
Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF
=
Share Price
/
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=
12.115
/
10.640209949148
=
1.14
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
PagerDuty Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms
PagerDuty Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for PagerDuty's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
PD vs RSKD, VTEX, MITK: Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Comparison
For the Software - Application subindustry, PagerDuty's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
PagerDuty Price-to-Projected-FCF vs Software Industry
For the Software industry and Technology sector, PagerDuty's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where PagerDuty's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.
The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $10.64 mean?
PagerDuty (PD) has a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $10.64 as of Aug. 20, 2026. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on PagerDuty and its competitors. This is 247% above median its historical median of 3.07. Over the past decade, PagerDuty's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF has ranged from 0.63 to 10.25. According to the industry distribution chart, PagerDuty ranks #589 out of 1459 companies in the Software industry, placing it in the top 40.4%.
Is PagerDuty's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF too high?
PagerDuty's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $10.64 is 247% above median its 10-year median of 3.07. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 0.63 to a high of 10.25. The Software industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 1.43. PagerDuty's value of $10.64 is 644.1% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, PagerDuty ranks #589 out of 1459 companies in the Software industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, PagerDuty has a GF Score™ of 67/100 and is considered Possible Value Trap, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does PagerDuty's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF compare to RSKD and VTEX?
According to the Software industry distribution chart, PagerDuty ranks #589 out of 1459 companies for Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF. This puts PagerDuty in the upper half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 1.43. PagerDuty's value of $10.64 is 644.1% above this benchmark. Historically, PagerDuty's own Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF has ranged from 0.63 to 10.25 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 3.07 vs. the industry median of 1.43, PagerDuty has consistently been above the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for a Software company?
The median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF among Software companies is 1.43, based on 1,459 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. PagerDuty's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $10.64 is 644.1% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on PagerDuty and its competitors. For the Software industry, the median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 1.43 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. PagerDuty's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $10.64, which is 247% above median its own 10-year median of 3.07. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is PagerDuty stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, PagerDuty (PD) is currently considered Possible Value Trap. The stock's GF Value™ is $21.87, compared to a current price of $12.12 — trading 44.6% below its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $10.64, which is 247% above median its 10-year median of 3.07 and 644.1% above the Software industry median of 1.43. PagerDuty's overall GF Score™ is 67/100 with 6 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF calculated?
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is calculated from a company's financial statements. For PagerDuty (PD), the current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $10.64 as of Aug. 20, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is PagerDuty (PD) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, PagerDuty stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of $12.12 is trading 44.6% below its estimated GF Value™ of $21.87.
GuruFocus considers PagerDuty to be Possible Value Trap.
Key valuation signals for PD:
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF: $10.64 (247% above median its 10-year median of 3.07)
GF Value™: $21.87 vs. price of $12.12 (44.6% below fair value)
Industry Position: 644.1% above the Software median (#589 of 1459)
No single metric tells the full story. See the PD stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
PagerDuty Inc is a digital operations management platform that manages urgent and mission-critical work for a modern, digital business. Its PagerDuty Operations Cloud combines artificial intelligence (AI) operations (AIOps), automation, customer service operations, and incident management with a generative AI assistant to create a flexible, resilient, and scalable platform to protect revenue and improve customer experience, improve operational efficiency, and mitigate the risk of operational failures. The company generates revenue predominantly from cloud-hosted software subscription fees and term-license software subscription fees. Geographically, the company derives a majority of its revenue from the United States and the rest from International markets.
67GF Score
Get the complete analysis for PD
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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