BHP Group (CHIX:BHPL) Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based): -45.10% (As of Jun. 24, 2026)


CHIX:BHPL BHP Group Ltd CHIX:BHPL
82 GF Score
Price £31.11
GF Value £22.92
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 7 Warning Signs
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What is BHP Group Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based)?

BHP Group CHIX:BHPL -4.07% 82 Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) is -45.10% as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus rates CHIX:BHPL with a GF Score™ of 82/100 and a GF Value™ of £22.92 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 7 warning signs investors should review.

Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) = (Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) - Current Price) / Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based).

Note: Discounted FCF model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

As of today (2026-06-24), BHP Group's Predictability Rank is 3-Stars. BHP Group's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted FCF model is £17.01 and current share price is £31.11. Consequently,

BHP Group's Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) using Discounted FCF model is -45.10%.

BHP Group Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) Competitor Comparison

For the Other Industrial Metals & Mining subindustry, BHP Group's Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

BHP Group Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) vs Metals & Mining Industry

For the Metals & Mining industry and Basic Materials sector, BHP Group's Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where BHP Group's Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) falls into.


CHIX:BHPL
82GF Score
BHP Group Ltd CHIX:BHPL
Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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BHP Group Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) Calculation

BHP Group's Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(21.44-31.11)/21.44
=-45.10 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

The intrinsic value is calculated from the Discounted FCF model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Earnings model except free cash flow are used in the calculation instead of earnings per share.

What does a Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) of -45.10% mean?
BHP Group (CHIX:BHPL) has a Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) of -45.10% as of Jun. 24, 2026. Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) is the percent difference between the current price and the intrinsic DCF FCF price. View historical data on BHP Group.
Is BHP Group's Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) too high?
BHP Group's current Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) is -45.10%. Overall, BHP Group has a GF Score™ of 82/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does BHP Group's Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) compare to competitors?
BHP Group's Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) of -45.10% can be compared against companies in the Metals & Mining industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) for a Metals & Mining company?
A good Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) depends on the Metals & Mining industry context. However, Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) mean?
A high Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) is the percent difference between the current price and the intrinsic DCF FCF price. View historical data on BHP Group. BHP Group's current Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) is -45.10%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is BHP Group stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, BHP Group (CHIX:BHPL) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is £22.92, compared to a current price of £31.11 — trading 35.7% above its estimated fair value. The current Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) is -45.10%. BHP Group's overall GF Score™ is 82/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) calculated?
Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For BHP Group (CHIX:BHPL), the current Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) is -45.10% as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is BHP Group (CHIX:BHPL) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, BHP Group stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of £31.11 is trading 35.7% above its estimated GF Value™ of £22.92. GuruFocus considers BHP Group to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for CHIX:BHPL:

  • Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based): -45.10%
  • GF Value™: £22.92 vs. price of £31.11 (35.7% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 82/100 with 7 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the CHIX:BHPL stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

BHP Group Business Description

Address 171 Collins Street, Level 18, Melbourne, VIC, AUS, 3000
BHP is a global diversified miner mainly supplying iron ore and copper. The merger of BHP Limited and Billiton PLC created the present-day BHP Group. The dual-listed structure from the 2001 BHP and Billiton merger was collapsed in 2022. Major assets include Pilbara iron ore and Escondida copper. Onshore US oil and gas assets were sold in 2018, and the remaining Petroleum assets were spun off and merged with Woodside in 2022, with BHP vesting the Woodside shares it received to BHP shareholders. It purchased copper miner Oz Minerals in fiscal 2023 and half of the Vicuna copper joint venture in fiscal 2025. It is entering the potash market through the development of its Jansen project in Canada. However, due to low prices, BHP placed its nickel business on care and maintenance in 2024.
82GF Score

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Margin of Safety % (DCF FCF Based) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

£31.11
Price
£22.92
GF Value