AOZOY (Aozora Bank) Beneish M-Score: -2.38 (As of Jun. 25, 2026)


AOZOY Aozora Bank Ltd AOZOY
49 GF Score
Price $3.95
GF Value $3.64
Valuation Fairly Valued
! 6 Warning Signs
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What is Aozora Bank Beneish M-Score?

Aozora Bank AOZOY 49 Beneish M-Score is -2.38 as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus rates AOZOY with a GF Score™ of 49/100 and a GF Value™ of $3.64 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 6 warning signs investors should review. Among 1,396 Banks companies, Aozora Bank ranks worse than 53.22% on this metric.

Note: Financial institutions were excluded from the sample in Beneish paper when calculating Beneish M-Score. Thus, the prediction might not fit banks and insurance companies.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.38 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Aozora Bank's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

AOZOY' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.04   Med: -2.57   Max: -2.1
Current: -2.38

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Aozora Bank was -2.10. The lowest was -3.04. And the median was -2.57.

AOZOY
49GF Score
Aozora Bank Ltd AOZOY
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Aozora Bank Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Aozora Bank for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1+0.528 * 1+0.404 * 1.0002+0.892 * 1.0714+0.115 * 1.0043
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.9275+4.679 * -0.012429-0.327 * 0.9419
=-2.44

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Mar26) TTM:Last Year (Mar25) TTM:
Total Receivables was $0.0 Mil.
Revenue was $779.3 Mil.
Gross Profit was $779.3 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $0.0 Mil.
Total Assets was $54,206.7 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $144.1 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $46.4 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $415.9 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $0.0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $5,629.8 Mil.
Net Income was $162.0 Mil.
Gross Profit was $0.0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was $835.8 Mil.
 Total Receivables was $0.0 Mil.
Revenue was $727.3 Mil.
Gross Profit was $727.3 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $0.0 Mil.
Total Assets was $52,076.7 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $150.2 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $48.7 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $418.5 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $0.0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $5,742.3 Mil.

1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(0 / 779.278) / (0 / 727.33)
=0 / 0
=1

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(727.33 / 727.33) / (779.278 / 779.278)
=1 / 1
=1

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (0 + 144.149) / 54206.747) / (1 - (0 + 150.177) / 52076.741)
=0.997341 / 0.997116
=1.0002

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=779.278 / 727.33
=1.0714

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(48.652 / (48.652 + 150.177)) / (46.432 / (46.432 + 144.149))
=0.244693 / 0.243634
=1.0043

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(415.918 / 779.278) / (418.523 / 727.33)
=0.533722 / 0.575424
=0.9275

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((5629.82 + 0) / 54206.747) / ((5742.344 + 0) / 52076.741)
=0.103858 / 0.110267
=0.9419

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(161.99 - 0 - 835.75) / 54206.747
=-0.012429

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Aozora Bank has a M-score of -2.44 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.38 mean?
Aozora Bank (AOZOY) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.38 as of Jun. 25, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Aozora Bank and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Aozora Bank ranks #743 out of 1396 companies in the Banks industry, placing it in the top 53.2%.
Is Aozora Bank's Beneish M-Score too high?
Aozora Bank's current Beneish M-Score is -2.38. Based on the distribution chart, Aozora Bank ranks #743 out of 1396 companies in the Banks industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, Aozora Bank has a GF Score™ of 49/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Aozora Bank's Beneish M-Score compare to competitors?
According to the Banks industry distribution chart, Aozora Bank ranks #743 out of 1396 companies for Beneish M-Score. This places Aozora Bank in the lower half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Banks company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Banks industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Aozora Bank and its competitors. Aozora Bank's current Beneish M-Score is -2.38. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Aozora Bank stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Aozora Bank (AOZOY) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is $3.64, compared to a current price of $3.95 — trading 8.5% above its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.38. Aozora Bank's overall GF Score™ is 49/100 with 6 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Aozora Bank (AOZOY), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.38 as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Aozora Bank (AOZOY) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Aozora Bank stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of $3.95 is trading 8.5% above its estimated GF Value™ of $3.64. GuruFocus considers Aozora Bank to be Fairly Valued.

Key valuation signals for AOZOY:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.38
  • GF Value™: $3.64 vs. price of $3.95 (8.5% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 49/100 with 6 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the AOZOY stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Aozora Bank Business Description

Other Exchanges 8304:JapanAON:Germany
Address 6-1-1 Kojimachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, JPN, 102-8660
Aozora Bank Ltd is a full-service commercial bank with operations mainly in Japan. It is engaged in banking and financial services through various business segments. The Corporate Sales Group provides lending, deposits, financial products, private equity investment, and M&A-related services for corporate clients. The Structured Finance Group handles acquisition, environmental projects, revitalization, and real estate finance. The International Business Group manages overseas investment and financing operations. The Market Group deals with derivatives, foreign exchange trading, and ALM. The Customer Relations Group offers loans, deposits, and financial products to corporate and retail clients. It generates the majority of its revenue from the Structured Finance Group segment.
49GF Score

Get the complete analysis for AOZOY

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$3.95
Price
$3.64
GF Value