ARI (Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance) Beneish M-Score: -2.29 (As of Jun. 25, 2026)


ARI Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc ARI
55 GF Score
Price $10.75
GF Value $9.71
Valuation Modestly Overvalued
! 10 Warning Signs
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What is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Beneish M-Score?

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance ARI -1.47% 55 Beneish M-Score is -2.29 as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus rates ARI with a GF Score™ of 55/100 and a GF Value™ of $9.71 (Modestly Overvalued). The stock has 10 warning signs investors should review. Among 765 REITs companies, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance ranks worse than 65.88% on this metric.

Note: Financial institutions were excluded from the sample in Beneish paper when calculating Beneish M-Score. Thus, the prediction might not fit banks and insurance companies.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.29 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

ARI' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -4.49   Med: -2.34   Max: -1.68
Current: -2.29

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance was -1.68. The lowest was -4.49. And the median was -2.34.

ARI
55GF Score
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc ARI
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.6568+0.528 * 1+0.404 * 1+0.892 * 1.4565+0.115 * 1
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.6339+4.679 * 0.001109-0.327 * 0.908
=-2.29

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Mar26) TTM:Last Year (Mar25) TTM:
Total Receivables was $58.4 Mil.
Revenue was 59.711 + 75.231 + 65.114 + 62.529 = $262.6 Mil.
Gross Profit was 59.711 + 75.231 + 65.114 + 62.529 = $262.6 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $0.0 Mil.
Total Assets was $10,087.0 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $0.0 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $12.7 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $26.7 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $0.0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $1,663.3 Mil.
Net Income was 26.227 + 29.199 + 50.791 + 20.739 = $127.0 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = $0.0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 12.561 + 8.241 + 31.738 + 63.226 = $115.8 Mil.
 Total Receivables was $61.0 Mil.
Revenue was 69.243 + 78 + -53.813 + 86.858 = $180.3 Mil.
Gross Profit was 69.243 + 78 + -53.813 + 86.858 = $180.3 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $0.0 Mil.
Total Assets was $8,784.2 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $0.0 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $9.5 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $28.9 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $0.0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $1,595.2 Mil.

1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(58.401 / 262.585) / (61.047 / 180.288)
=0.222408 / 0.338608
=0.6568

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(180.288 / 180.288) / (262.585 / 262.585)
=1 / 1
=1

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (0 + 0) / 10086.983) / (1 - (0 + 0) / 8784.193)
=1 / 1
=1

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=262.585 / 180.288
=1.4565

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(9.468 / (9.468 + 0)) / (12.698 / (12.698 + 0))
=1 / 1
=1

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(26.71 / 262.585) / (28.928 / 180.288)
=0.101719 / 0.160454
=0.6339

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((1663.3 + 0) / 10086.983) / ((1595.189 + 0) / 8784.193)
=0.164896 / 0.181598
=0.908

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(126.956 - 0 - 115.766) / 10086.983
=0.001109

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance has a M-score of -2.29 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.29 mean?
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.29 as of Jun. 25, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance ranks #504 out of 765 companies in the REITs industry, placing it in the top 65.9%.
Is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's Beneish M-Score too high?
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's current Beneish M-Score is -2.29. Based on the distribution chart, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance ranks #504 out of 765 companies in the REITs industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance has a GF Score™ of 55/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's Beneish M-Score compare to ORC and LADR?
According to the REITs industry distribution chart, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance ranks #504 out of 765 companies for Beneish M-Score. This places Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance in the lower half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a REITs company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the REITs industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance and its competitors. Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's current Beneish M-Score is -2.29. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $9.71, compared to a current price of $10.75 — trading 10.7% above its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.29. Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's overall GF Score™ is 55/100 with 10 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.29 as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of $10.75 is trading 10.7% above its estimated GF Value™ of $9.71. GuruFocus considers Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance to be Modestly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for ARI:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.29
  • GF Value™: $9.71 vs. price of $10.75 (10.7% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 55/100 with 10 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the ARI stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Business Description

Industry Real EstateREITs
Other Exchanges 9A1:Germany
Address c/o Apollo Global Management, Inc, 9 West 57th Street, 42nd Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10019
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc is a real estate investment trust that originates, invests in, acquires, and manages commercial first-mortgage loans, subordinate financings, commercial mortgage-backed securities, and other real estate-related debt investments. The subordinate loans and first-mortgage loans account for the vast majority of the portfolio on a cost basis. Property types include residential, retail, healthcare, office, mixed-use, hotel, industrial, multifamily, securities, and other, with residential properties and hotels representing the highest property value. More than a third of the properties are located in New York City, with the other properties located across other regions of the United States, as well as other countries.
55GF Score

Get the complete analysis for ARI

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$10.75
Price
$9.71
GF Value