Airtel Africa (CHIX:AAFL) Beneish M-Score: -3.31 (As of Jun. 26, 2026)


CHIX:AAFL Airtel Africa PLC CHIX:AAFL
67 GF Score
Price £3.44
GF Value £1.27
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 3 Warning Signs
View Full Analysis

What is Airtel Africa Beneish M-Score?

Airtel Africa CHIX:AAFL +0.82% 67 Beneish M-Score is -3.31 as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus rates CHIX:AAFL with a GF Score™ of 67/100 and a GF Value™ of £1.27 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 3 warning signs investors should review. Among 355 Telecommunication Services companies, Airtel Africa ranks better than 87.04% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -3.31 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Airtel Africa's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

CHIX:AAFl' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.78   Med: -3.21   Max: -2.5
Current: -3.31

During the past 10 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Airtel Africa was -2.50. The lowest was -3.78. And the median was -3.21.


Airtel Africa Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for Airtel Africa's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Airtel Africa Beneish M-Score Chart

Airtel Africa Annual Data
Trend Mar17 Mar18 Mar19 Mar20 Mar21 Mar22 Mar23 Mar24 Mar25 Mar26
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.50 -3.04 -3.78 -3.32 -3.31

Airtel Africa Quarterly Data
Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25 Jun25 Sep25 Dec25 Mar26
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -3.32 -3.36 -3.32 -3.39 -3.31

CHIX:AAFL vs TMUS, VZ, T: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Telecom Services subindustry, Airtel Africa's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Airtel Africa Beneish M-Score vs Telecommunication Services Industry

For the Telecommunication Services industry and Communication Services sector, Airtel Africa's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Airtel Africa's Beneish M-Score falls into.


CHIX:AAFL
67GF Score
Airtel Africa PLC CHIX:AAFL
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Airtel Africa Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Airtel Africa for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.8363+0.528 * 0.9636+0.404 * 0.9076+0.892 * 1.2399+0.115 * 0.9543
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.0197+4.679 * -0.178816-0.327 * 0.9731
=-3.31

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Mar26) TTM:Last Year (Mar25) TTM:
Total Receivables was £298 Mil.
Revenue was 1311 + 1258.695 + 1159.58 + 1042.855 = £4,772 Mil.
Gross Profit was 965.25 + 930.015 + 839.9 + 745.107 = £3,480 Mil.
Total Current Assets was £2,179 Mil.
Total Assets was £10,472 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was £4,694 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was £779 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was £677 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was £3,744 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was £3,798 Mil.
Net Income was 149.25 + 132.219 + 130.98 + 92.862 = £505 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = £0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 666.75 + 685.746 + 606.8 + 418.616 = £2,378 Mil.
Total Receivables was £287 Mil.
Revenue was 1019.358 + 1002.988 + 917.784 + 908.616 = £3,849 Mil.
Gross Profit was 715.95 + 711.109 + 647.136 + 630.372 = £2,705 Mil.
Total Current Assets was £1,673 Mil.
Total Assets was £9,306 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was £4,109 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was £646 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was £535 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was £3,283 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was £3,604 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(297.75 / 4772.13) / (287.154 / 3848.746)
=0.062394 / 0.07461
=0.8363

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(2704.567 / 3848.746) / (3480.272 / 4772.13)
=0.702714 / 0.729291
=0.9636

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (2178.75 + 4694.25) / 10472.25) / (1 - (1672.614 + 4109.166) / 9305.802)
=0.343694 / 0.378691
=0.9076

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=4772.13 / 3848.746
=1.2399

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(645.699 / (645.699 + 4109.166)) / (778.864 / (778.864 + 4694.25))
=0.135798 / 0.142307
=0.9543

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(676.558 / 4772.13) / (535.095 / 3848.746)
=0.141773 / 0.139031
=1.0197

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((3798 + 3744) / 10472.25) / ((3603.744 + 3283.308) / 9305.802)
=0.720189 / 0.740082
=0.9731

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(505.311 - 0 - 2377.912) / 10472.25
=-0.178816

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Airtel Africa has a M-score of -3.31 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -3.31 mean?
Airtel Africa (CHIX:AAFL) has a Beneish M-Score of -3.31 as of Jun. 26, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Airtel Africa and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Airtel Africa ranks #46 out of 355 companies in the Telecommunication Services industry, placing it in the top 13%.
Is Airtel Africa's Beneish M-Score too high?
Airtel Africa's current Beneish M-Score is -3.31. Based on the distribution chart, Airtel Africa ranks #46 out of 355 companies in the Telecommunication Services industry, which is in the top quartile — a strong position relative to peers. Overall, Airtel Africa has a GF Score™ of 67/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Airtel Africa's Beneish M-Score compare to TMUS and VZ?
According to the Telecommunication Services industry distribution chart, Airtel Africa ranks #46 out of 355 companies for Beneish M-Score. This places Airtel Africa in the top 13% of its industry — outperforming the majority of peers. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Telecommunication Services company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Telecommunication Services industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Airtel Africa and its competitors. Airtel Africa's current Beneish M-Score is -3.31. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Airtel Africa stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Airtel Africa (CHIX:AAFL) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is £1.27, compared to a current price of £3.44 — trading 170.6% above its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -3.31. Airtel Africa's overall GF Score™ is 67/100 with 3 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Airtel Africa (CHIX:AAFL), the current Beneish M-Score is -3.31 as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Airtel Africa (CHIX:AAFL) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Airtel Africa stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of £3.44 is trading 170.6% above its estimated GF Value™ of £1.27. GuruFocus considers Airtel Africa to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for CHIX:AAFL:

  • Beneish M-Score: -3.31
  • GF Value™: £1.27 vs. price of £3.44 (170.6% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 67/100 with 3 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the CHIX:AAFL stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Airtel Africa Business Description

Address 15 Davies Street, London, GBR, W1K 3DE
Airtel Africa PLC is a telecoms and financial services provider transforming lives across the continent through increased digital and financial inclusion. The principal activities of the Group mainly consist of the provision of telecommunications and mobile money services. Its services include Voice, Data, Mobile money, Enterprise, and Data centers. The Group's operating segments are Nigeria mobile services, East Africa mobile services, Francophone Africa mobile services, and Mobile money. It generates maximum revenue from East Africa mobile services, comprising mobile service operations in Uganda, Kenya, Zambia, Tanzania, Malawi, and Rwanda.
67GF Score

Get the complete analysis for CHIX:AAFL

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

£3.44
Price
£1.27
GF Value