CITIC (CTPCY) Beneish M-Score: -2.56 (As of Jun. 25, 2026)


CTPCY CITIC Ltd CTPCY
88 GF Score
Price $7.88
GF Value $5.73
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 8 Warning Signs
View Full Analysis

What is CITIC Beneish M-Score?

CITIC CTPCY 88 Beneish M-Score is -2.56 as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus rates CTPCY with a GF Score™ of 88/100 and a GF Value™ of $5.73 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 8 warning signs investors should review. Among 538 Conglomerates companies, CITIC ranks better than 58.18% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.56 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for CITIC's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

CTPCY' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -2.66   Med: -2.41   Max: 17.84
Current: -2.56

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of CITIC was 17.84. The lowest was -2.66. And the median was -2.41.


CITIC Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for CITIC's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

CITIC Beneish M-Score Chart

CITIC Annual Data
Trend Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.21 -2.56 -2.38 -2.39 -2.56

CITIC Semi-Annual Data
Jun16 Dec16 Jun17 Dec17 Jun18 Dec18 Jun19 Dec19 Jun20 Dec20 Jun21 Dec21 Jun22 Dec22 Jun23 Dec23 Jun24 Dec24 Jun25 Dec25
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.38 0.00 -2.39 0.00 -2.56

CTPCY vs HON, MMM: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Conglomerates subindustry, CITIC's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


CITIC Beneish M-Score vs Conglomerates Industry

For the Conglomerates industry and Industrials sector, CITIC's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where CITIC's Beneish M-Score falls into.


CTPCY
88GF Score
CITIC Ltd CTPCY
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

CITIC Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of CITIC for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.0248+0.528 * 0.9525+0.404 * 1.0213+0.892 * 1.0365+0.115 * 1.1167
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1+4.679 * -0.028555-0.327 * 1.0116
=-2.57

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Dec25) TTM:Last Year (Dec24) TTM:
Total Receivables was $844,796 Mil.
Revenue was $134,196 Mil.
Gross Profit was $48,165 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,238,949 Mil.
Total Assets was $1,848,753 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $41,536 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $3,793 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $0 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $1,023,261 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $408,965 Mil.
Net Income was $8,339 Mil.
Gross Profit was $0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was $61,130 Mil.
Total Receivables was $795,337 Mil.
Revenue was $129,471 Mil.
Gross Profit was $44,261 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,122,678 Mil.
Total Assets was $1,658,553 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $36,719 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $3,785 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $0 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $918,866 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $351,339 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(844796.399 / 134196.104) / (795336.849 / 129470.793)
=6.295238 / 6.142983
=1.0248

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(44260.854 / 129470.793) / (48165.039 / 134196.104)
=0.34186 / 0.358915
=0.9525

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (1238949.199 + 41536.092) / 1848753.408) / (1 - (1122678.177 + 36718.585) / 1658552.749)
=0.307379 / 0.300959
=1.0213

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=134196.104 / 129470.793
=1.0365

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(3785.35 / (3785.35 + 36718.585)) / (3793.446 / (3793.446 + 41536.092))
=0.093456 / 0.083686
=1.1167

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(0 / 134196.104) / (0 / 129470.793)
=0 / 0
=1

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((408965.385 + 1023261.302) / 1848753.408) / ((351338.608 + 918865.631) / 1658552.749)
=0.774699 / 0.765851
=1.0116

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(8338.539 - 0 - 61129.742) / 1848753.408
=-0.028555

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

CITIC has a M-score of -2.57 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.56 mean?
CITIC (CTPCY) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.56 as of Jun. 25, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on CITIC and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, CITIC ranks #225 out of 538 companies in the Conglomerates industry, placing it in the top 41.8%.
Is CITIC's Beneish M-Score too high?
CITIC's current Beneish M-Score is -2.56. Based on the distribution chart, CITIC ranks #225 out of 538 companies in the Conglomerates industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, CITIC has a GF Score™ of 88/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does CITIC's Beneish M-Score compare to HON and MMM?
According to the Conglomerates industry distribution chart, CITIC ranks #225 out of 538 companies for Beneish M-Score. This puts CITIC in the upper half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Conglomerates company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Conglomerates industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on CITIC and its competitors. CITIC's current Beneish M-Score is -2.56. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is CITIC stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, CITIC (CTPCY) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $5.73, compared to a current price of $7.88 — trading 37.5% above its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.56. CITIC's overall GF Score™ is 88/100 with 8 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For CITIC (CTPCY), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.56 as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is CITIC (CTPCY) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, CITIC stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of $7.88 is trading 37.5% above its estimated GF Value™ of $5.73. GuruFocus considers CITIC to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for CTPCY:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.56
  • GF Value™: $5.73 vs. price of $7.88 (37.5% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 88/100 with 8 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the CTPCY stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


CITIC Business Description

Address 1 Tim Mei Avenue, 32nd Floor, CITIC Tower, Central, Hong Kong, HKG
CITIC Ltd is a Hong Kong-based conglomerate. The company has comprehensively deepened reforms, promoted high-quality development and continuously enhanced its value creation capability and shareholder returns. Along with its subsidiaries, it operates in the following reportable segments: Comprehensive Financial Services, Advanced Intelligent Manufacturing, Advanced Materials, New Consumption, and New-type urbanisation. Maximum revenue is generated from the Advanced Materials segment, which includes exploration, processing, and trading of resources and energy products, including iron ore, copper, and crude oil, and the manufacturing of special steels. Geographically, the group generates maximum revenue from the Chinese mainland, followed by Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan, and Overseas markets.
88GF Score

Get the complete analysis for CTPCY

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$7.88
Price
$5.73
GF Value