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Ampol (CTXAF) Beneish M-Score : -2.97 (As of Dec. 11, 2024)


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What is Ampol Beneish M-Score?

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.97 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Ampol's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

CTXAF' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.71   Med: -2.87   Max: -1.56
Current: -2.97

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Ampol was -1.56. The lowest was -3.71. And the median was -2.87.


Ampol Beneish M-Score Historical Data

The historical data trend for Ampol's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Ampol Beneish M-Score Chart

Ampol Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.76 -3.13 -2.22 -1.56 -2.97

Ampol Semi-Annual Data
Dec14 Jun15 Dec15 Jun16 Dec16 Jun17 Dec17 Jun18 Dec18 Jun19 Dec19 Jun20 Dec20 Jun21 Dec21 Jun22 Dec22 Jun23 Dec23 Jun24
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - -1.56 - -2.97 -

Competitive Comparison of Ampol's Beneish M-Score

For the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing subindustry, Ampol's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Ampol's Beneish M-Score Distribution in the Oil & Gas Industry

For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Ampol's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Ampol's Beneish M-Score falls into.



Ampol Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Ampol for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.9399+0.528 * 0.8654+0.404 * 0.9403+0.892 * 1.041+0.115 * 1.0137
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.1193+4.679 * -0.077633-0.327 * 0.9917
=-2.97

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Dec23) TTM:Last Year (Dec22) TTM:
Total Receivables was $1,617 Mil.
Revenue was $25,294 Mil.
Gross Profit was $1,961 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $3,850 Mil.
Total Assets was $8,586 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $3,287 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $307 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $1,292 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $3,193 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $2,278 Mil.
Net Income was $368 Mil.
Gross Profit was $22 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was $1,013 Mil.
Total Receivables was $1,653 Mil.
Revenue was $24,298 Mil.
Gross Profit was $1,630 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $4,016 Mil.
Total Assets was $8,470 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $2,934 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $279 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $1,109 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $3,465 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $1,976 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(1616.903 / 25294.004) / (1652.541 / 24298.221)
=0.063924 / 0.068011
=0.9399

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(1630.114 / 24298.221) / (1960.908 / 25294.004)
=0.067088 / 0.077525
=0.8654

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (3849.718 + 3287.477) / 8586.117) / (1 - (4015.883 + 2933.736) / 8469.632)
=0.168752 / 0.179466
=0.9403

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=25294.004 / 24298.221
=1.041

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(278.526 / (278.526 + 2933.736)) / (307.487 / (307.487 + 3287.477))
=0.086707 / 0.085533
=1.0137

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(1292.129 / 25294.004) / (1108.958 / 24298.221)
=0.051084 / 0.045639
=1.1193

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((2277.642 + 3193.067) / 8586.117) / ((1976.302 + 3465.311) / 8469.632)
=0.637158 / 0.642485
=0.9917

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(367.926 - 21.508 - 1012.985) / 8586.117
=-0.077633

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Ampol has a M-score of -2.97 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.


Ampol Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
29-33 Bourke Road, Alexandria, Sydney, NSW, AUS, 2015
Ampol (nee Caltex) is the largest and only Australian-listed petroleum refiner and distributor, with operations in all states and territories. It was a major international brand of Chevron's until that 50% owner sold out in 2015. Caltex transitioned to Ampol branding due to Chevron terminating its licence to use the Caltex brand in Australia. Ampol has operated for more than 100 years. It owns and operates a refinery at Lytton in Brisbane, but closed Sydney's Kurnell refinery to focus on the more profitable distribution/retail segment. It successfully completed a NZD 2.0 billion bid for New Zealand peer Z Energy in first-half 2022.