Ampol (CTXAF) Beneish M-Score: -2.77 (As of Jun. 24, 2026)


CTXAF Ampol Ltd CTXAF
82 GF Score
Price $16.30
GF Value $14.12
! 7 Warning Signs
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What is Ampol Beneish M-Score?

Ampol CTXAF +12.72% 82 Beneish M-Score is -2.77 as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus rates CTXAF with a GF Score™ of 82/100 and a GF Value™ of $14.12. The stock has 7 warning signs investors should review. Among 822 Oil & Gas companies, Ampol ranks better than 57.42% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.77 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Ampol's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

CTXAF' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.12   Med: -2.76   Max: -1.58
Current: -2.77

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Ampol was -1.58. The lowest was -3.12. And the median was -2.76.


Ampol Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for Ampol's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Ampol Beneish M-Score Chart

Ampol Annual Data
Trend Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.23 -1.58 -3.03 -2.75 -2.77

Ampol Semi-Annual Data
Jun16 Dec16 Jun17 Dec17 Jun18 Dec18 Jun19 Dec19 Jun20 Dec20 Jun21 Dec21 Jun22 Dec22 Jun23 Dec23 Jun24 Dec24 Jun25 Dec25
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -3.03 0.00 -2.75 0.00 -2.77

CTXAF vs VLO, MPC, PSX: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing subindustry, Ampol's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Ampol Beneish M-Score vs Oil & Gas Industry

For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Ampol's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Ampol's Beneish M-Score falls into.


CTXAF
82GF Score
Ampol Ltd CTXAF
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Ampol Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Ampol for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.0213+0.528 * 0.8226+0.404 * 0.8682+0.892 * 0.9429+0.115 * 1.058
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0+4.679 * -0.055206-0.327 * 0.9884
=-2.73

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Dec25) TTM:Last Year (Dec24) TTM:
Total Receivables was $1,294 Mil.
Revenue was $20,811 Mil.
Gross Profit was $1,761 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $3,112 Mil.
Total Assets was $8,080 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $3,750 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $327 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $0 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $3,005 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $2,326 Mil.
Net Income was $55 Mil.
Gross Profit was $-27 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was $528 Mil.
Total Receivables was $1,344 Mil.
Revenue was $22,070 Mil.
Gross Profit was $1,536 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $3,424 Mil.
Total Assets was $8,151 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $3,312 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $307 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $555 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $3,189 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $2,253 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(1294.419 / 20811.03) / (1344.142 / 22070.234)
=0.062199 / 0.060903
=1.0213

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(1536.479 / 22070.234) / (1761.262 / 20811.03)
=0.069618 / 0.084631
=0.8226

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (3111.761 + 3749.568) / 8079.601) / (1 - (3424.003 + 3311.653) / 8151.425)
=0.150784 / 0.173684
=0.8682

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=20811.03 / 22070.234
=0.9429

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(306.65 / (306.65 + 3311.653)) / (326.512 / (326.512 + 3749.568))
=0.08475 / 0.080104
=1.058

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(0 / 20811.03) / (555.035 / 22070.234)
=0 / 0.025149
=0

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((2326.179 + 3005.183) / 8079.601) / ((2252.755 + 3189.107) / 8151.425)
=0.659855 / 0.667596
=0.9884

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(54.751 - -27.309 - 528.106) / 8079.601
=-0.055206

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Ampol has a M-score of -2.73 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.77 mean?
Ampol (CTXAF) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.77 as of Jun. 24, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Ampol and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Ampol ranks #350 out of 822 companies in the Oil & Gas industry, placing it in the top 42.6%.
Is Ampol's Beneish M-Score too high?
Ampol's current Beneish M-Score is -2.77. Based on the distribution chart, Ampol ranks #350 out of 822 companies in the Oil & Gas industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, Ampol has a GF Score™ of 82/100, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Ampol's Beneish M-Score compare to VLO and MPC?
According to the Oil & Gas industry distribution chart, Ampol ranks #350 out of 822 companies for Beneish M-Score. This puts Ampol in the upper half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for an Oil & Gas company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Oil & Gas industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Ampol and its competitors. Ampol's current Beneish M-Score is -2.77. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Ampol stock overvalued right now?
Ampol (CTXAF) has a current Beneish M-Score of -2.77. The stock's GF Value™ is $14.12, compared to a current price of $16.30 — trading 15.4% above its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.77. Ampol's overall GF Score™ is 82/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Ampol (CTXAF), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.77 as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Ampol (CTXAF) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Ampol stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of $16.30 is trading 15.4% above its estimated GF Value™ of $14.12.

Key valuation signals for CTXAF:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.77
  • GF Value™: $14.12 vs. price of $16.30 (15.4% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 82/100 with 7 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the CTXAF stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Ampol Business Description

Industry EnergyOil & Gas
Address 29-33 Bourke Road, Alexandria, Sydney, NSW, AUS, 2015
Ampol (nee Caltex) is the largest and only Australian-listed petroleum refiner and distributor, with operations in all states and territories. It was a major international brand of Chevron's until that 50% owner sold out in 2015. Caltex transitioned to Ampol branding due to Chevron terminating its licence to use the Caltex brand in Australia. Ampol has operated for more than 100 years. It owns and operates a refinery at Lytton in Brisbane, but closed Sydney's Kurnell refinery to focus on the more profitable distribution/retail segment. It successfully completed a NZD 2.0 billion bid for New Zealand peer Z Energy in first-half 2022.
82GF Score

Get the complete analysis for CTXAF

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$16.30
Price
$14.12
GF Value