AmpolCTXAF +12.72%82 Altman Z2-Score is 1.33 as of Jun. 24, 2026, which is 44% below its 10-year median of 2.37. GuruFocus rates CTXAF with a GF Score™ of 82/100 and a GF Value™ of $14.12. The stock has 7 warning signs investors should review. Among 1,012 Oil & Gas companies, Ampol ranks worse than 56.82% on this metric.
Altman Z2-Score, also known as Z"-Score, is used to predict the likelihood that a non-manufacturing company (excluding property/financial company) will face bankruptcy within a two-year period.
Ampol has a Altman Z2-Score of 1.33, indicating it is in Grey Zones. This implies that Ampol is in some kind of financial stress. If it is below 1.1, the company may face bankrupcy risk.
The zones of discrimination were as such:
When Altman Z2-Score <= 1.1, it is in Distress Zones.
When Altman Z2-Score >= 2.6, it is in Safe Zones.
When Altman Z2-Score is between 1.1 and 2.6, it is in Grey Zones.
The historical rank and industry rank for Ampol's Altman Z2-Score or its related term are showing as below:
CTXAF'
s Altman Z2-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 1.33 Med: 2.37 Max: 4.57
Current: 1.33
During the past 13 years, Ampol's highest Altman Z2-Score was 4.57. The lowest was 1.33. And the median was 2.37.
Ampol (OTCPK:CTXAF) Altman Z2-Score Explanation
The original Z-Score model was based on publicly traded manufacturing companies while the Z2-Score, also known as Z"-score can be used for any type of company excluding property/financial companies. Both Z-Score and Z2-Score describes the financial health of a company, and its likelihood of financial distress.
X1: The Working Capital/Total Assets (WC/TA) ratio is a measure of the net liquid assets of the firm relative to the total capitalization. Working capital is defined as the difference between current assets and current liabilities. Ordinarily, a firm experiencing consistent operating losses will have shrinking current assets in relation to total assets. Altman found this one proved to be the most valuable liquidity ratio comparing with the current ratio and the quick ratio. This is however the least significant of the five factors.
X2: Retained Earnings/Total Assets: the RE/TA ratio measures the leverage of a firm. Retained earnings is the account which reports the total amount of reinvested earnings and/or losses of a firm over its entire life. Those firms with high RE, relative to TA, have financed their assets through retention of profits and have not utilized as much debt.
X3, Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets (EBIT/TA): This ratio is a measure of the true productivity of the firm's assets, independent of any tax or leverage factors. Since a firm's ultimate existence is based on the earning power of its assets, this ratio appears to be particularly appropriate for studies dealing with corporate failure. This ratio continually outperforms other profitability measures, including cash flow.
Altman Z2-Score does not apply to financial companies.
Ampol Altman Z2-Score Related Terms
Ampol Altman Z2-Score Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Ampol's Altman Z2-Score can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
CTXAF vs VLO, MPC, PSX: Altman Z2-Score Comparison
For the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing subindustry, Ampol's Altman Z2-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Altman Z2-Score data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Ampol Altman Z2-Score vs Oil & Gas Industry
For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Ampol's Altman Z2-Score distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Ampol's Altman Z2-Score falls into.
Altman Z-Score model is an accurate forecaster of failure up to two years prior to distress. It can be considered the assessment of the distress of industrial corporations.
Z2-Score, also known as Z"-Score is the Z-Score for non-manufacturing companies excluding property/financial companies.
Ampol's Altman Z2-Score for today is calculated with this formula:
Z
=
6.56
*
X1
+
3.26
*
X2
+
6.72
*
X3
+
1.05
*
X4_2
=
6.56
*
0.0132
+
3.26
*
0.2016
+
6.72
*
0.0323
+
1.05
*
0.3487
=
1.33
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency. GuruFocus does not calculate Altman Z2-Score when X4_2 value is 0.
Ampol (CTXAF) has a Altman Z2-Score of 1.33 as of Jun. 24, 2026. Z2-Score is the Z-Score for non-manufacturing companies excluding property/financial companies, which measures a company's bankruptcy risk. View historical data on Ampol and its competitors. This is 44% below median its historical median of 2.37. Over the past decade, Ampol's Altman Z2-Score has ranged from 1.33 to 4.57. According to the industry distribution chart, Ampol ranks #575 out of 1012 companies in the Oil & Gas industry, placing it in the top 56.8%.
Is Ampol's Altman Z2-Score too high?
Ampol's current Altman Z2-Score of 1.33 is 44% below median its 10-year median of 2.37. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 1.33 to a high of 4.57. The Oil & Gas industry median Altman Z2-Score is 1.81. Ampol's value of 1.33 is 26.3% below this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Ampol ranks #575 out of 1012 companies in the Oil & Gas industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, Ampol has a GF Score™ of 82/100, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Ampol's Altman Z2-Score compare to VLO and MPC?
According to the Oil & Gas industry distribution chart, Ampol ranks #575 out of 1012 companies for Altman Z2-Score. This places Ampol in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Altman Z2-Score is 1.81. Ampol's value of 1.33 is 26.3% below this benchmark. Historically, Ampol's own Altman Z2-Score has ranged from 1.33 to 4.57 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 2.37 vs. the industry median of 1.81, Ampol has consistently been below the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Altman Z2-Score for an Oil & Gas company?
The median Altman Z2-Score among Oil & Gas companies is 1.81, based on 1,012 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Altman Z2-Score significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Altman Z2-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Ampol's current Altman Z2-Score of 1.33 is 26.3% below the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Altman Z2-Score mean?
A high Altman Z2-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Z2-Score is the Z-Score for non-manufacturing companies excluding property/financial companies, which measures a company's bankruptcy risk. View historical data on Ampol and its competitors. For the Oil & Gas industry, the median Altman Z2-Score is 1.81 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Ampol's current Altman Z2-Score is 1.33, which is 44% below median its own 10-year median of 2.37. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Ampol stock overvalued right now?
Ampol (CTXAF) has a current Altman Z2-Score of 1.33. The stock's GF Value™ is $14.12, compared to a current price of $16.30 — trading 15.4% above its estimated fair value. The current Altman Z2-Score is 1.33, which is 44% below median its 10-year median of 2.37 and 26.3% below the Oil & Gas industry median of 1.81. Ampol's overall GF Score™ is 82/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Altman Z2-Score calculated?
Altman Z2-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Ampol (CTXAF), the current Altman Z2-Score is 1.33 as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Ampol (CTXAF) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Ampol stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $16.30 is trading 15.4% above its estimated GF Value™ of $14.12.
Key valuation signals for CTXAF:
Altman Z2-Score: 1.33 (44% below median its 10-year median of 2.37)
GF Value™: $14.12 vs. price of $16.30 (15.4% above fair value)
Industry Position: 26.3% below the Oil & Gas median (#575 of 1012)
No single metric tells the full story. See the CTXAF stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Ampol (nee Caltex) is the largest and only Australian-listed petroleum refiner and distributor, with operations in all states and territories. It was a major international brand of Chevron's until that 50% owner sold out in 2015. Caltex transitioned to Ampol branding due to Chevron terminating its licence to use the Caltex brand in Australia. Ampol has operated for more than 100 years. It owns and operates a refinery at Lytton in Brisbane, but closed Sydney's Kurnell refinery to focus on the more profitable distribution/retail segment. It successfully completed a NZD 2.0 billion bid for New Zealand peer Z Energy in first-half 2022.
82GF Score
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