Aygaz AS (IST:AYGAZ) Beneish M-Score: -1.76 (As of Jun. 26, 2026)


IST:AYGAZ Aygaz AS IST:AYGAZ
57 GF Score
Price ₺211.00
GF Value ₺146.45
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 5 Warning Signs
View Full Analysis

What is Aygaz AS Beneish M-Score?

Aygaz AS IST:AYGAZ -0.99% 57 Beneish M-Score is -1.76 as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus rates IST:AYGAZ with a GF Score™ of 57/100 and a GF Value™ of ₺146.45 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 5 warning signs investors should review. Among 486 Utilities - Regulated companies, Aygaz AS ranks worse than 92.18% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Warning Sign:

Beneish M-Score -1.76 higher than -1.78, which implies that the company might have manipulated its financial results.

The historical rank and industry rank for Aygaz AS's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

IST:AYGAZ' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.33   Med: -2.04   Max: 2.46
Current: -1.76

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Aygaz AS was 2.46. The lowest was -3.33. And the median was -2.04.


Aygaz AS Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for Aygaz AS's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Aygaz AS Beneish M-Score Chart

Aygaz AS Annual Data
Trend Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -1.86 2.15 -1.52 -2.28 -2.62

Aygaz AS Quarterly Data
Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25 Jun25 Sep25 Dec25 Mar26
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.08 -2.16 -1.91 -2.62 -1.76

IST:AYGAZ vs ATO, NI, UGI: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Utilities - Regulated Gas subindustry, Aygaz AS's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Aygaz AS Beneish M-Score vs Utilities - Regulated Industry

For the Utilities - Regulated industry and Utilities sector, Aygaz AS's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Aygaz AS's Beneish M-Score falls into.


IST:AYGAZ
57GF Score
Aygaz AS IST:AYGAZ
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Aygaz AS Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Aygaz AS for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.5537+0.528 * 0.7907+0.404 * 1.0372+0.892 * 0.8321+0.115 * 1.3957
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.2586+4.679 * 0.070906-0.327 * 0.6234
=-1.76

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Mar26) TTM:Last Year (Mar25) TTM:
Total Receivables was ₺5,933 Mil.
Revenue was 21891.156 + 24889.63 + 21233.617 + 19966.641 = ₺87,981 Mil.
Gross Profit was 2534.633 + 2568.55 + 2530.468 + 2020.369 = ₺9,654 Mil.
Total Current Assets was ₺14,249 Mil.
Total Assets was ₺82,488 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was ₺12,514 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was ₺1,436 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was ₺4,882 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was ₺8,912 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was ₺895 Mil.
Net Income was 134.97 + 2247.78 + 1699.943 + 963.055 = ₺5,046 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = ₺0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was -2706.98 + 202.568 + 612.817 + 1088.421 = ₺-803 Mil.
Total Receivables was ₺4,590 Mil.
Revenue was 25343.244 + 29742.106 + 26822.561 + 23829.176 = ₺105,737 Mil.
Gross Profit was 2390.706 + 2437.795 + 2703.805 + 1641.226 = ₺9,174 Mil.
Total Current Assets was ₺14,364 Mil.
Total Assets was ₺67,222 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was ₺9,076 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was ₺1,523 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was ₺4,662 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was ₺12,112 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was ₺709 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(5933.439 / 87981.044) / (4589.596 / 105737.087)
=0.06744 / 0.043406
=1.5537

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(9173.532 / 105737.087) / (9654.02 / 87981.044)
=0.086758 / 0.109728
=0.7907

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (14248.654 + 12513.658) / 82488.356) / (1 - (14363.784 + 9076.164) / 67221.881)
=0.675563 / 0.651305
=1.0372

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=87981.044 / 105737.087
=0.8321

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(1522.626 / (1522.626 + 9076.164)) / (1435.854 / (1435.854 + 12513.658))
=0.14366 / 0.102932
=1.3957

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(4882.484 / 87981.044) / (4662.228 / 105737.087)
=0.055495 / 0.044093
=1.2586

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((895.473 + 8911.641) / 82488.356) / ((709.221 + 12111.916) / 67221.881)
=0.118891 / 0.190729
=0.6234

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(5045.748 - 0 - -803.174) / 82488.356
=0.070906

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Aygaz AS has a M-score of -1.76 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -1.76 mean?
Aygaz AS (IST:AYGAZ) has a Beneish M-Score of -1.76 as of Jun. 26, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Aygaz AS and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Aygaz AS ranks #448 out of 486 companies in the Utilities - Regulated industry, placing it in the top 92.2%.
Is Aygaz AS's Beneish M-Score too high?
Aygaz AS's current Beneish M-Score is -1.76. Based on the distribution chart, Aygaz AS ranks #448 out of 486 companies in the Utilities - Regulated industry, which is in the bottom quartile relative to peers. Overall, Aygaz AS has a GF Score™ of 57/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Aygaz AS's Beneish M-Score compare to ATO and NI?
According to the Utilities - Regulated industry distribution chart, Aygaz AS ranks #448 out of 486 companies for Beneish M-Score. This places Aygaz AS in the lower half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for an Utilities - Regulated company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Utilities - Regulated industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Aygaz AS and its competitors. Aygaz AS's current Beneish M-Score is -1.76. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Aygaz AS stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Aygaz AS (IST:AYGAZ) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is ₺146.45, compared to a current price of ₺211.00 — trading 44.1% above its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -1.76. Aygaz AS's overall GF Score™ is 57/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Aygaz AS (IST:AYGAZ), the current Beneish M-Score is -1.76 as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Aygaz AS (IST:AYGAZ) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Aygaz AS stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of ₺211.00 is trading 44.1% above its estimated GF Value™ of ₺146.45. GuruFocus considers Aygaz AS to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for IST:AYGAZ:

  • Beneish M-Score: -1.76
  • GF Value™: ₺146.45 vs. price of ₺211.00 (44.1% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 57/100 with 5 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the IST:AYGAZ stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Aygaz AS Business Description

Address Buyukdere Caddesi No: 145-1, Aygaz Han, Zincirlikuyu, Sisli, Istanbul, TUR, 34394
Aygaz AS is a gas company engaged in the sale and distribution of liquefied petroleum gas, or LPG, and natural gas products in Turkey. The group has three operating segments which are LPG and gas, cargo transportation and distribution, petroleum products, and electricity. It generates the majority of its revenue from the LPG and gas segment.
57GF Score

Get the complete analysis for IST:AYGAZ

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

₺211.00
Price
₺146.45
GF Value