Nampak (JSE:NPK) Beneish M-Score: -1.59 (As of Jun. 26, 2026)


JSE:NPK Nampak Ltd JSE:NPK
56 GF Score
Price R440.00
GF Value R471.12
Valuation Fairly Valued
! 5 Warning Signs
View Full Analysis

What is Nampak Beneish M-Score?

Nampak JSE:NPK 56 Beneish M-Score is -1.59 as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus rates JSE:NPK with a GF Score™ of 56/100 and a GF Value™ of R471.12 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 5 warning signs investors should review. Among 373 Packaging & Containers companies, Nampak ranks worse than 86.06% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Warning Sign:

Beneish M-Score -1.59 higher than -1.78, which implies that the company might have manipulated its financial results.

The historical rank and industry rank for Nampak's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

JSE:NPK' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -4.15   Med: -2.52   Max: -1.59
Current: -1.59

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Nampak was -1.59. The lowest was -4.15. And the median was -2.52.


Nampak Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for Nampak's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Nampak Beneish M-Score Chart

Nampak Annual Data
Trend Sep16 Sep17 Sep18 Sep19 Sep20 Sep21 Sep22 Sep23 Sep24 Sep25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.41 -2.29 -4.15 -3.33 -1.59

Nampak Semi-Annual Data
Sep16 Mar17 Sep17 Mar18 Sep18 Mar19 Sep19 Mar20 Sep20 Mar21 Sep21 Mar22 Sep22 Mar23 Sep23 Mar24 Sep24 Mar25 Sep25 Mar26
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 0.00 -3.33 0.00 -1.59 0.00

JSE:NPK vs SW, PKG, AMCR: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Packaging & Containers subindustry, Nampak's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Nampak Beneish M-Score vs Packaging & Containers Industry

For the Packaging & Containers industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Nampak's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Nampak's Beneish M-Score falls into.


JSE:NPK
56GF Score
Nampak Ltd JSE:NPK
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Nampak Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Nampak for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.8961+0.528 * 1.0402+0.404 * 0.7106+0.892 * 1.0774+0.115 * 1.279
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1+4.679 * 0.198537-0.327 * 0.8305
=-1.59

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Sep25) TTM:Last Year (Sep24) TTM:
Total Receivables was R1,407 Mil.
Revenue was R10,727 Mil.
Gross Profit was R4,304 Mil.
Total Current Assets was R6,014 Mil.
Total Assets was R10,992 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was R4,504 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was R268 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was R0 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was R3,294 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was R4,193 Mil.
Net Income was R3,466 Mil.
Gross Profit was R0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was R1,283 Mil.
Total Receivables was R1,458 Mil.
Revenue was R9,956 Mil.
Gross Profit was R4,156 Mil.
Total Current Assets was R6,556 Mil.
Total Assets was R11,289 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was R4,048 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was R313 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was R0 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was R3,463 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was R5,795 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(1407.3 / 10726.8) / (1457.6 / 9956.3)
=0.131195 / 0.1464
=0.8961

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(4155.6 / 9956.3) / (4304.2 / 10726.8)
=0.417384 / 0.401257
=1.0402

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (6014.4 + 4503.7) / 10992.4) / (1 - (6555.8 + 4048.1) / 11289.4)
=0.043148 / 0.060721
=0.7106

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=10726.8 / 9956.3
=1.0774

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(312.7 / (312.7 + 4048.1)) / (267.5 / (267.5 + 4503.7))
=0.071707 / 0.056066
=1.279

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(0 / 10726.8) / (0 / 9956.3)
=0 / 0
=1

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((4193.3 + 3293.7) / 10992.4) / ((5795.1 + 3463.4) / 11289.4)
=0.681107 / 0.820106
=0.8305

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(3465.5 - 0 - 1283.1) / 10992.4
=0.198537

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Nampak has a M-score of -1.59 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -1.59 mean?
Nampak (JSE:NPK) has a Beneish M-Score of -1.59 as of Jun. 26, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Nampak and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Nampak ranks #321 out of 373 companies in the Packaging & Containers industry, placing it in the top 86.1%.
Is Nampak's Beneish M-Score too high?
Nampak's current Beneish M-Score is -1.59. Based on the distribution chart, Nampak ranks #321 out of 373 companies in the Packaging & Containers industry, which is in the bottom quartile relative to peers. Overall, Nampak has a GF Score™ of 56/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Nampak's Beneish M-Score compare to SW and PKG?
According to the Packaging & Containers industry distribution chart, Nampak ranks #321 out of 373 companies for Beneish M-Score. This places Nampak in the lower half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Packaging & Containers company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Packaging & Containers industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Nampak and its competitors. Nampak's current Beneish M-Score is -1.59. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Nampak stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Nampak (JSE:NPK) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is R471.12, compared to a current price of R440.00 — trading 6.6% below its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -1.59. Nampak's overall GF Score™ is 56/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Nampak (JSE:NPK), the current Beneish M-Score is -1.59 as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Nampak (JSE:NPK) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Nampak stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of R440.00 is trading 6.6% below its estimated GF Value™ of R471.12. GuruFocus considers Nampak to be Fairly Valued.

Key valuation signals for JSE:NPK:

  • Beneish M-Score: -1.59
  • GF Value™: R471.12 vs. price of R440.00 (6.6% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 56/100 with 5 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the JSE:NPK stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Nampak Business Description

Address 1 Waterhouse Place, Office G6, Century, ZAF, 7441
Nampak Ltd is a metals packaging company in South Africa and Angola, and also has substantial positions in other metal packaging. It is the producer of two-piece tinplate cans and aluminium monobloc aerosol cans. The company's operating segments include Metals, which involves the manufacture of beverage cans, food cans, aerosol cans, and other metal packaging, and Corporate, which provides for head office activities, treasury, property services, and consolidation adjustments, including goodwill. The majority of revenue comes from the Metals segment and from South Africa.
56GF Score

Get the complete analysis for JSE:NPK

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

R440.00
Price
R471.12
GF Value