Transpaco (JSE:TPC) Beneish M-Score: -2.54 (As of Jun. 27, 2026)


JSE:TPC Transpaco Ltd JSE:TPC
83 GF Score
Price R42.00
GF Value R35.38
Valuation Modestly Overvalued
! 7 Warning Signs
View Full Analysis

What is Transpaco Beneish M-Score?

Transpaco JSE:TPC 83 Beneish M-Score is -2.54 as of Jun. 27, 2026. GuruFocus rates JSE:TPC with a GF Score™ of 83/100 and a GF Value™ of R35.38 (Modestly Overvalued). The stock has 7 warning signs investors should review. Among 373 Packaging & Containers companies, Transpaco ranks worse than 52.55% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.54 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Transpaco's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

JSE:TPC' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.26   Med: -2.29   Max: 0.17
Current: -2.54

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Transpaco was 0.17. The lowest was -3.26. And the median was -2.29.


Transpaco Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for Transpaco's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Transpaco Beneish M-Score Chart

Transpaco Annual Data
Trend Jun16 Jun17 Jun18 Jun19 Jun20 Jun21 Jun22 Jun23 Jun24 Jun25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.20 -2.09 -2.69 -2.31 -2.54

Transpaco Semi-Annual Data
Jun16 Dec16 Jun17 Dec17 Jun18 Dec18 Jun19 Dec19 Jun20 Dec20 Jun21 Dec21 Jun22 Dec22 Jun23 Dec23 Jun24 Dec24 Jun25 Dec25
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 0.00 -2.31 0.00 -2.54 0.00

JSE:TPC vs SW, PKG, AMCR: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Packaging & Containers subindustry, Transpaco's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Transpaco Beneish M-Score vs Packaging & Containers Industry

For the Packaging & Containers industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Transpaco's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Transpaco's Beneish M-Score falls into.


JSE:TPC
83GF Score
Transpaco Ltd JSE:TPC
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Transpaco Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Transpaco for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.9384+0.528 * 0.963+0.404 * 1.0068+0.892 * 0.978+0.115 * 1.2495
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1+4.679 * 0.002417-0.327 * 1.0081
=-2.54

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Jun25) TTM:Last Year (Jun24) TTM:
Total Receivables was R336 Mil.
Revenue was R2,432 Mil.
Gross Profit was R667 Mil.
Total Current Assets was R817 Mil.
Total Assets was R1,532 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was R615 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was R70 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was R0 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was R356 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was R152 Mil.
Net Income was R148 Mil.
Gross Profit was R0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was R144 Mil.
Total Receivables was R366 Mil.
Revenue was R2,487 Mil.
Gross Profit was R657 Mil.
Total Current Assets was R864 Mil.
Total Assets was R1,463 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was R503 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was R74 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was R0 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was R404 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was R77 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(336.296 / 2432.372) / (366.431 / 2487.058)
=0.138258 / 0.147335
=0.9384

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(657.132 / 2487.058) / (667.343 / 2432.372)
=0.264221 / 0.274359
=0.963

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (817.114 + 614.886) / 1532.019) / (1 - (864.379 + 503.404) / 1462.622)
=0.065286 / 0.064842
=1.0068

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=2432.372 / 2487.058
=0.978

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(73.549 / (73.549 + 503.404)) / (69.863 / (69.863 + 614.886))
=0.127478 / 0.102027
=1.2495

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(0 / 2432.372) / (0 / 2487.058)
=0 / 0
=1

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((151.682 + 356.187) / 1532.019) / ((77.04 + 403.948) / 1462.622)
=0.331503 / 0.328853
=1.0081

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(147.529 - 0 - 143.826) / 1532.019
=0.002417

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Transpaco has a M-score of -2.54 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.54 mean?
Transpaco (JSE:TPC) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.54 as of Jun. 27, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Transpaco and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Transpaco ranks #196 out of 373 companies in the Packaging & Containers industry, placing it in the top 52.5%.
Is Transpaco's Beneish M-Score too high?
Transpaco's current Beneish M-Score is -2.54. Based on the distribution chart, Transpaco ranks #196 out of 373 companies in the Packaging & Containers industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, Transpaco has a GF Score™ of 83/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Transpaco's Beneish M-Score compare to SW and PKG?
According to the Packaging & Containers industry distribution chart, Transpaco ranks #196 out of 373 companies for Beneish M-Score. This places Transpaco in the lower half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Packaging & Containers company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Packaging & Containers industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Transpaco and its competitors. Transpaco's current Beneish M-Score is -2.54. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Transpaco stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Transpaco (JSE:TPC) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is R35.38, compared to a current price of R42.00 — trading 18.7% above its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.54. Transpaco's overall GF Score™ is 83/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Transpaco (JSE:TPC), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.54 as of Jun. 27, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Transpaco (JSE:TPC) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Transpaco stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of R42.00 is trading 18.7% above its estimated GF Value™ of R35.38. GuruFocus considers Transpaco to be Modestly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for JSE:TPC:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.54
  • GF Value™: R35.38 vs. price of R42.00 (18.7% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 83/100 with 7 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the JSE:TPC stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Transpaco Business Description

Address 331 - 6th Street, PO Box 39601, Bramley, 2018, Wynberg, Sandton, Johannesburg, GT, ZAF, 2090
Transpaco Ltd is a manufacturer, recycler, and distributor of paper and plastic packaging products. It operates in three business segments: Plastics Products, Paper and Board Products, and Property and Group Services. The company generates maximum revenue from the Plastic products segment. Its Plastic products segment manufactures flexible plastic packaging solutions. Some of its products include Retail vest-type plastic bags; Refuse bags; Tubing and sheeting; Scholastic stationery; Heavy duty cores; Yarn cores; Conical containers; Stretch film and others.
83GF Score

Get the complete analysis for JSE:TPC

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

R42.00
Price
R35.38
GF Value