Thungela Resources (LSE:TGA) Beneish M-Score: -3.86 (As of Jun. 26, 2026)


LSE:TGA Thungela Resources Ltd LSE:TGA
65 GF Score
Price £4.57
GF Value £5.22
Valuation Modestly Undervalued
! 7 Warning Signs
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What is Thungela Resources Beneish M-Score?

Thungela Resources LSE:TGA -6.26% 65 Beneish M-Score is -3.86 as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus rates LSE:TGA with a GF Score™ of 65/100 and a GF Value™ of £5.22 (Modestly Undervalued). The stock has 7 warning signs investors should review. Among 119 Other Energy Sources companies, Thungela Resources ranks better than 89.92% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -3.86 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Thungela Resources's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

LSE:TGA' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.86   Med: -2.27   Max: 2.7
Current: -3.86

During the past 8 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Thungela Resources was 2.70. The lowest was -3.86. And the median was -2.27.

Thungela Resources Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for Thungela Resources's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Thungela Resources Beneish M-Score Chart

Thungela Resources Annual Data
Trend Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial 2.21 -2.25 -2.72 -2.29 -3.86

Thungela Resources Semi-Annual Data
Dec18 Dec19 Jun20 Dec20 Jun21 Dec21 Jun22 Dec22 Jun23 Dec23 Jun24 Dec24 Jun25 Dec25
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.72 0.00 -2.29 0.00 -3.86

LSE:TGA vs CNR: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Thermal Coal subindustry, Thungela Resources's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Thungela Resources Beneish M-Score vs Other Energy Sources Industry

For the Other Energy Sources industry and Energy sector, Thungela Resources's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Thungela Resources's Beneish M-Score falls into.


LSE:TGA
65GF Score
Thungela Resources Ltd LSE:TGA
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Thungela Resources Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Thungela Resources for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.9866+0.528 * 1.0001+0.404 * 1.5669+0.892 * 0.8509+0.115 * 0.5705
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.8328+4.679 * -0.250178-0.327 * 1.2524
=-3.84

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Dec25) TTM:Last Year (Dec24) TTM:
Total Receivables was £181 Mil.
Revenue was £1,314 Mil.
Gross Profit was £749 Mil.
Total Current Assets was £615 Mil.
Total Assets was £1,677 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was £538 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was £129 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was £20 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was £357 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was £2 Mil.
Net Income was £-314 Mil.
Gross Profit was £0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was £105 Mil.
 Total Receivables was £216 Mil.
Revenue was £1,544 Mil.
Gross Profit was £881 Mil.
Total Current Assets was £815 Mil.
Total Assets was £2,087 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was £856 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was £106 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was £13 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was £356 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was £1 Mil.

1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(181.417 / 1313.542) / (216.092 / 1543.688)
=0.138113 / 0.139984
=0.9866

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(880.519 / 1543.688) / (749.188 / 1313.542)
=0.5704 / 0.570357
=1.0001

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (615.477 + 537.905) / 1676.819) / (1 - (815.262 + 856.292) / 2087.413)
=0.312161 / 0.199222
=1.5669

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=1313.542 / 1543.688
=0.8509

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(106.461 / (106.461 + 856.292)) / (129.317 / (129.317 + 537.905))
=0.11058 / 0.193814
=0.5705

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(19.571 / 1313.542) / (12.548 / 1543.688)
=0.014899 / 0.008129
=1.8328

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((2.175 + 356.754) / 1676.819) / ((0.825 + 355.942) / 2087.413)
=0.214054 / 0.170913
=1.2524

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(-314.417 - 0 - 105.087) / 1676.819
=-0.250178

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Thungela Resources has a M-score of -3.84 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -3.86 mean?
Thungela Resources (LSE:TGA) has a Beneish M-Score of -3.86 as of Jun. 26, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Thungela Resources and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Thungela Resources ranks #12 out of 119 companies in the Other Energy Sources industry, placing it in the top 10.1%.
Is Thungela Resources' Beneish M-Score too high?
Thungela Resources' current Beneish M-Score is -3.86. Based on the distribution chart, Thungela Resources ranks #12 out of 119 companies in the Other Energy Sources industry, which is in the top quartile — a strong position relative to peers. Overall, Thungela Resources has a GF Score™ of 65/100 and is considered Modestly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Thungela Resources' Beneish M-Score compare to CNR?
According to the Other Energy Sources industry distribution chart, Thungela Resources ranks #12 out of 119 companies for Beneish M-Score. This places Thungela Resources in the top 10% of its industry — outperforming the majority of peers. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for an Other Energy Sources company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Other Energy Sources industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Thungela Resources and its competitors. Thungela Resources's current Beneish M-Score is -3.86. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Thungela Resources stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Thungela Resources (LSE:TGA) is currently considered Modestly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is £5.22, compared to a current price of £4.57 — trading 12.5% below its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -3.86. Thungela Resources' overall GF Score™ is 65/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Thungela Resources (LSE:TGA), the current Beneish M-Score is -3.86 as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Thungela Resources (LSE:TGA) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Thungela Resources stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of £4.57 is trading 12.5% below its estimated GF Value™ of £5.22. GuruFocus considers Thungela Resources to be Modestly Undervalued.

Key valuation signals for LSE:TGA:

  • Beneish M-Score: -3.86
  • GF Value™: £5.22 vs. price of £4.57 (12.5% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 65/100 with 7 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the LSE:TGA stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Thungela Resources Business Description

Address 25 Bath Avenue, Rosebank, Johannesburg, GT, ZAF, 2196
Thungela Resources Ltd is a pure-play producer and exporter of thermal coal with operations in South Africa and Australia. The group focuses on high-quality coal reserves and marketable production, positioning as a key player in the energy market by delivering coal through world-class ports, and powering nations. It owns interests in various mining operations, namely Goedehoop, Greenside, Isibonelo, Khwezela, AAIC, Mafube Coal Mining, and Butsanani Energy which consist of both underground and open cast mines located in the Mpumalanga province of South Africa. Its operational segments are Opencast, Underground, and Services.
65GF Score

Get the complete analysis for LSE:TGA

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

£4.57
Price
£5.22
GF Value