AlcoaMEX:AA1 55 Beneish M-Score is -2.29 as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus rates MEX:AA1 with a GF Score™ of 55/100 and a GF Value™ of MXN554.00 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 7 warning signs investors should review. Among 685 Metals & Mining companies, Alcoa ranks better than 51.09% on this metric.
The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:
An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Good Sign:
Beneish M-Score -2.29 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
The historical rank and industry rank for Alcoa's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:
MEX:AA1'
s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3 Med: -2.45 Max: -1.1
Current: -2.29
During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Alcoa was -1.10. The lowest was -3.00. And the median was -2.45.
Alcoa Beneish M-Score Related Terms
Alcoa Beneish M-Score Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Alcoa's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
MEX:AA1 vs CENX, CSTM, KALU: Beneish M-Score Comparison
For the Aluminum subindustry, Alcoa's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Alcoa Beneish M-Score vs Metals & Mining Industry
For the Metals & Mining industry and Basic Materials sector, Alcoa's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Alcoa's Beneish M-Score falls into.
The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.
The M-Score Variables:
The M-score of Alcoa for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:
M
=
-4.84
+
0.92 * DSRI
+
0.528 * GMI
+
0.404 * AQI
+
0.892 * SGI
+
0.115 * DEPI
=
-4.84
+
0.92 * 0.9984
+
0.528 * 1.3636
+
0.404 * 1.2515
+
0.892 * 0.9183
+
0.115 * 0.9957
-
0.172 * SGAI
+
4.679 * TATA
-
0.327 * LVGI
-
0.172 * 1.0912
+
4.679 * -0.027999
-
0.327 * 0.9781
=
-2.40
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.
DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.
DEPI
=
(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1))
/
(Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=
(12460.805 / (12460.805 + 132916.925))
/
(11654.16 / (11654.16 + 123722.355))
=
0.085713
/
0.086087
=
0.9957
Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.
6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index
Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.
TATA
=
(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t
-
CashFlowsfromOperations_t)
/
TotalAssets_t
=
(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t
-
CashFlowsfromOperations_t)
/
TotalAssets_t
=
(18842.955 - 10055.197
-
17189.115)
/
300064.128
=
-0.027999
An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Alcoa has a M-score of -2.40 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
Alcoa (MEX:AA1) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.29 as of Jun. 26, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Alcoa and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Alcoa ranks #335 out of 685 companies in the Metals & Mining industry, placing it in the top 48.9%.
Is Alcoa's Beneish M-Score too high?
Alcoa's current Beneish M-Score is -2.29. Based on the distribution chart, Alcoa ranks #335 out of 685 companies in the Metals & Mining industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, Alcoa has a GF Score™ of 55/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Alcoa's Beneish M-Score compare to CENX and CSTM?
According to the Metals & Mining industry distribution chart, Alcoa ranks #335 out of 685 companies for Beneish M-Score. This puts Alcoa in the upper half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Metals & Mining company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Metals & Mining industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Alcoa and its competitors. Alcoa's current Beneish M-Score is -2.29. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Alcoa stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Alcoa (MEX:AA1) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is MXN554.00, compared to a current price of MXN967.00 — trading 74.5% above its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.29. Alcoa's overall GF Score™ is 55/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Alcoa (MEX:AA1), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.29 as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Alcoa (MEX:AA1) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Alcoa stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of MXN967.00 is trading 74.5% above its estimated GF Value™ of MXN554.00.
GuruFocus considers Alcoa to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for MEX:AA1:
Beneish M-Score: -2.29
GF Value™: MXN554.00 vs. price of MXN967.00 (74.5% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the MEX:AA1 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Alcoa is a vertically integrated aluminum company whose operations include bauxite mining, alumina refining, and manufacturing primary aluminum. It is one of the world's largest bauxite miners and alumina refiners by production volume, but sits outside the top-10 aluminum producers, a list dominated by Chinese companies. Profits are closely tied to prevailing commodity prices along the aluminum supply chain.Alcoa was the first mass producer of aluminum, launching the world-changing Hall-Heroult smelting process in the 1880s, making aluminum affordable. It listed as a public company in 1925. In 2016, Alcoa spun off its automotive and aerospace metal parts segment to focus on mining, smelting, and refining. It bought the 40% unowned balance of AWAC in mid-2024.
55GF Score
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