Alcoa (MEX:AA1) Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share: MXN23.11 (As of Jun. 2026)

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MEX:AA1 Alcoa Corp MEX:AA1
61 GF Score
Price MXN810.30
GF Value MXN568.81
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 7 Warning Signs
View Full Analysis

What is Alcoa Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share?

Alcoa MEX:AA1 61 Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is MXN23.11 as of Jun. 2026. GuruFocus rates MEX:AA1 with a GF Score™ of 61/100 and a GF Value™ of MXN568.81 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 7 warning signs investors should review.

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share and the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years.

Alcoa's adjusted free cash flow per share for the three months ended in Jun. 2026 was MXN27.687. Add all the adjusted free cash flow per share for the past 10 years together and divide the count will get our Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share, which is MXN23.11 for the trailing ten years ended in Jun. 2026.

During the past 12 months, Alcoa's average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was 67.90% per year. Please click Growth Rate Calculation Example (GuruFocus) to see how GuruFocus calculates Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT)'s revenue growth rate. You can apply the same method to get the Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate using Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share data.

As of today (2026-07-24), Alcoa's current stock price is MXN810.30. Alcoa's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share for the quarter that ended in Jun. 2026 was MXN23.11. Alcoa's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of today is 35.06.

During the past 13 years, the highest Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of Alcoa was 90.42. The lowest was 31.09. And the median was 49.48.


Alcoa  (MEX:AA1) Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Explanation

If a company grows much fast than inflation, Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share may underestimate the company's free cash flow. Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF can seem to be too high even the actual Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow is low.

For the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF, the free cash flow per share of the past 10 years are inflation-adjusted and averaged. The result is used for P/FCF calculation. Since it looks at the average over the last 10 years, the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF is also called CAPFCF Ratio.

The Shiller PE Ratio was first used by professor Robert Shiller. He uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings per share of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted free cash flow per share of a company over the past 10 years.

Alcoa's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of today is calculated as

Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF=Share Price/Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share
=810.30/23.11
=35.06

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

During the past 13 years, the highest Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of Alcoa was 90.42. The lowest was 31.09. And the median was 49.48.


Be Aware

Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF works better for cyclical companies. It gives you a better idea on the company's real free cash flow value.


Alcoa Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Related Terms


Alcoa Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for Alcoa's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Alcoa Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Chart

Alcoa Annual Data
Trend Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25
Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.26 14.00

Alcoa Quarterly Data
Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25 Jun25 Sep25 Dec25 Mar26 Jun26
Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 14.60 11.33 14.00 18.42 23.11

MEX:AA1 vs CENX, CSTM, KALU: Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Comparison

For the Aluminum subindustry, Alcoa's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Alcoa Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF vs Metals & Mining Industry

For the Metals & Mining industry and Basic Materials sector, Alcoa's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Alcoa's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF falls into.


MEX:AA1
61GF Score
Alcoa Corp MEX:AA1
Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Alcoa Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Calculation

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share and the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years.

What is Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share? How do we calculate Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share?

Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years. Let's use an example to explain.

If we want to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share of Wal-Mart (WMT) for Dec. 31, 2010, we need to have the inflation data and the free cash flow per share from 2001 through 2010.

We adjusted the 2001 free cash flow per share data with the total inflation from 2001 through 2010 to the equivalent free cash flow in 2010. If the total inflation from 2001 to 2010 is 40%, and Wal-Mart's free cash flow is $1 a share in 2001, then the 2001's equivalent free cash flow in 2010 is $1.4 a share. If Wal-Mart's free cash flow is $1 again in 2002, and the total inflation from 2002 through 2010 is 35%, then the equivalent 2002 free cash flow in 2010 is $1.35. So on and so forth, you get the equivalent free cash flow per share of past 10 years. Then you add them together and divided the sum by the count to get Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share.

Please note that we use the CPI data of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the CPI data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the CPI data of the United States as default.

For example, Alcoa's adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share data for the three months ended in Jun. 2026 was:

Adj_FreeCashFlowPerShare= Free Cash Flow per Share /CPI of Jun. 2026 (Change)*Current CPI (Jun. 2026)
=27.687/333.9520*333.9520
=27.687

Current CPI (Jun. 2026) = 333.9520.

Alcoa Quarterly Data

Free Cash Flow per Share CPI Adj_FreeCashFlowPerShare
201609 -20.663 241.428 -28.582
201612 10.481 241.432 14.497
201703 0.304 243.801 0.416
201706 21.672 244.955 29.546
201709 27.950 246.819 37.817
201712 32.032 246.524 43.392
201803 -1.836 249.554 -2.457
201806 -54.582 251.989 -72.336
201809 20.716 252.439 27.405
201812 40.205 251.233 53.443
201903 10.381 254.202 13.638
201906 -0.723 256.143 -0.943
201909 9.234 256.759 12.010
201912 13.049 256.974 16.958
202003 -22.696 258.115 -29.364
202006 26.185 257.797 33.920
202009 9.977 260.280 12.801
202012 -7.807 260.474 -10.009
202103 -7.463 264.877 -9.409
202106 -17.287 271.696 -21.248
202109 37.894 274.310 46.133
202112 44.483 278.802 53.282
202203 -4.236 287.504 -4.920
202206 46.401 296.311 52.295
202209 0.674 296.808 0.758
202212 -5.805 296.797 -6.532
202303 -24.911 301.836 -27.562
202306 -12.328 305.109 -13.493
202309 -7.437 307.789 -8.069
202312 0.954 306.746 1.039
202403 -30.040 312.332 -32.119
202406 12.450 314.175 13.234
202409 -0.252 315.301 -0.267
202412 19.360 315.605 20.485
202503 -1.414 319.799 -1.477
202506 25.820 322.561 26.732
202509 -4.641 324.800 -4.772
202512 20.105 324.054 20.719
202603 -20.226 330.213 -20.455
202606 27.687 333.952 27.687

Add all the adjusted free cash flow per share together and divide 10 will get our Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share.

What does a Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share of MXN23.11 mean?
Alcoa (MEX:AA1) has a Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share of MXN23.11 as of Jun. 2026. Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share represents the company's inflation-adjusted FCF per share over a 10-year period. View historical data on Alcoa and its competitors.
Is Alcoa's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share too high?
Alcoa's current Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is MXN23.11. Overall, Alcoa has a GF Score™ of 61/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Alcoa's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share compare to CENX and CSTM?
Alcoa's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share of MXN23.11 can be compared against companies in the Metals & Mining industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share for a Metals & Mining company?
A good Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share depends on the Metals & Mining industry context. However, Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share mean?
A high Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share represents the company's inflation-adjusted FCF per share over a 10-year period. View historical data on Alcoa and its competitors. Alcoa's current Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is MXN23.11. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Alcoa stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Alcoa (MEX:AA1) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is MXN568.81, compared to a current price of MXN810.30 — trading 42.5% above its estimated fair value. The current Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is MXN23.11. Alcoa's overall GF Score™ is 61/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share calculated?
Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Alcoa (MEX:AA1), the current Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is MXN23.11 as of Jun. 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Alcoa (MEX:AA1) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Alcoa stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of MXN810.30 is trading 42.5% above its estimated GF Value™ of MXN568.81. GuruFocus considers Alcoa to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for MEX:AA1:

  • Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share: MXN23.11
  • GF Value™: MXN568.81 vs. price of MXN810.30 (42.5% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 61/100 with 7 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the MEX:AA1 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Alcoa Business Description

Address 201 Isabella Street, Suite 500, Pittsburgh, PA, USA, 15212-5858
Alcoa is a vertically integrated aluminum company whose operations include bauxite mining, alumina refining, and manufacturing primary aluminum. It is one of the world's largest bauxite miners and alumina refiners by production volume, but sits outside the top-10 aluminum producers, a list dominated by Chinese companies. Profits are closely tied to prevailing commodity prices along the aluminum supply chain.Alcoa was the first mass producer of aluminum, launching the world-changing Hall-Heroult smelting process in the 1880s, making aluminum affordable. It listed as a public company in 1925. In 2016, Alcoa spun off its automotive and aerospace metal parts segment to focus on mining, smelting, and refining. It bought the 40% unowned balance of AWAC in mid-2024.
61GF Score

Get the complete analysis for MEX:AA1

Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

MXN810.30
Price
MXN568.81
GF Value