Etsy (MEX:ETSY) Beneish M-Score: -3.25 (As of Aug. 11, 2026)

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MEX:ETSY Etsy Inc MEX:ETSY
70 GF Score
Price MXN1,496.00
GF Value MXN1,154.38
Valuation Modestly Overvalued
! 7 Warning Signs
View Full Analysis

What is Etsy Beneish M-Score?

Etsy MEX:ETSY 70 Beneish M-Score is -3.25 as of Aug. 11, 2026. GuruFocus rates MEX:ETSY with a GF Score™ of 70/100 and a GF Value™ of MXN1,154.38 (Modestly Overvalued). The stock has 7 warning signs investors should review. Among 1,090 Retail - Cyclical companies, Etsy ranks better than 87.16% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -3.25 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Etsy's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

MEX:ETSY' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.8   Med: -2.81   Max: -1.22
Current: -3.25

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Etsy was -1.22. The lowest was -3.80. And the median was -2.81.


Etsy Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for Etsy's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Etsy Beneish M-Score Chart

Etsy Annual Data
Trend Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -1.29 -3.36 -2.93 -3.71 -3.21

Etsy Quarterly Data
Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25 Jun25 Sep25 Dec25 Mar26 Jun26
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -3.72 -3.39 -3.21 -3.35 -3.25

MEX:ETSY vs VIPS, CHWY, GLBE: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Internet Retail subindustry, Etsy's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Etsy Beneish M-Score vs Retail - Cyclical Industry

For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Etsy's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Etsy's Beneish M-Score falls into.


MEX:ETSY
70GF Score
Etsy Inc MEX:ETSY
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Etsy Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Etsy for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.3711+0.528 * 1.0122+0.404 * 0.5615+0.892 * 0.9306+0.115 * 0.831
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.9799+4.679 * -0.195534-0.327 * 1.0899
=-3.33

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Jun26) TTM:Last Year (Jun25) TTM:
Total Receivables was MXN3,533 Mil.
Revenue was 11661.394 + 11383.629 + 15874.473 + 12437.845 = MXN51,357 Mil.
Gross Profit was 8446.101 + 8215.662 + 11597.291 + 8867.238 = MXN37,126 Mil.
Total Current Assets was MXN32,722 Mil.
Total Assets was MXN42,561 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was MXN3,495 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was MXN1,819 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was MXN21,245 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was MXN22,166 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was MXN42,335 Mil.
Net Income was -813.996 + 1256.519 + 1993.861 + 1385.042 = MXN3,821 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 66.62 + 169.76 + 2.395 + 14.253 = MXN253 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 707.644 + 1455.996 + 5710.04 + 4016.829 = MXN11,891 Mil.
Total Receivables was MXN2,769 Mil.
Revenue was 11846.033 + 12524.592 + 17772.435 + 13043.052 = MXN55,186 Mil.
Gross Profit was 8670.997 + 9091.685 + 13232.337 + 9387.744 = MXN40,383 Mil.
Total Current Assets was MXN31,031 Mil.
Total Assets was MXN48,149 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was MXN4,335 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was MXN1,723 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was MXN23,296 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was MXN9,158 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was MXN57,792 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(3533.492 / 51357.341) / (2769.21 / 55186.112)
=0.068802 / 0.050179
=1.3711

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(40382.763 / 55186.112) / (37126.292 / 51357.341)
=0.731756 / 0.722901
=1.0122

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (32721.656 + 3494.546) / 42561.025) / (1 - (31030.503 + 4335.103) / 48149.07)
=0.149076 / 0.265498
=0.5615

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=51357.341 / 55186.112
=0.9306

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(1723.346 / (1723.346 + 4335.103)) / (1818.633 / (1818.633 + 3494.546))
=0.284453 / 0.342287
=0.831

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(21244.592 / 51357.341) / (23295.545 / 55186.112)
=0.413662 / 0.422127
=0.9799

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((42334.991 + 22165.657) / 42561.025) / ((57791.955 + 9157.807) / 48149.07)
=1.515486 / 1.390468
=1.0899

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(3821.426 - 253.028 - 11890.509) / 42561.025
=-0.195534

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Etsy has a M-score of -3.33 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -3.25 mean?
Etsy (MEX:ETSY) has a Beneish M-Score of -3.25 as of Aug. 11, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Etsy and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Etsy ranks #140 out of 1090 companies in the Retail - Cyclical industry, placing it in the top 12.8%.
Is Etsy's Beneish M-Score too high?
Etsy's current Beneish M-Score is -3.25. Based on the distribution chart, Etsy ranks #140 out of 1090 companies in the Retail - Cyclical industry, which is in the top quartile — a strong position relative to peers. Overall, Etsy has a GF Score™ of 70/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Etsy's Beneish M-Score compare to VIPS and CHWY?
According to the Retail - Cyclical industry distribution chart, Etsy ranks #140 out of 1090 companies for Beneish M-Score. This places Etsy in the top 13% of its industry — outperforming the majority of peers. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Retail - Cyclical company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Retail - Cyclical industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Etsy and its competitors. Etsy's current Beneish M-Score is -3.25. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Etsy stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Etsy (MEX:ETSY) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is MXN1,154.38, compared to a current price of MXN1,496.00 — trading 29.6% above its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -3.25. Etsy's overall GF Score™ is 70/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Etsy (MEX:ETSY), the current Beneish M-Score is -3.25 as of Aug. 11, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Etsy (MEX:ETSY) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Etsy stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of MXN1,496.00 is trading 29.6% above its estimated GF Value™ of MXN1,154.38. GuruFocus considers Etsy to be Modestly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for MEX:ETSY:

  • Beneish M-Score: -3.25
  • GF Value™: MXN1,154.38 vs. price of MXN1,496.00 (29.6% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 70/100 with 7 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the MEX:ETSY stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Etsy Business Description

Address 117 Adams Street, Brooklyn, NY, USA, 11201
Founded in 2005, Etsy operates a leading global marketplace, connecting roughly 87 million active buyers and 6 million sellers of unique, handmade, and vintage goods. In fiscal 2025, the firm generated $2.9 billion in revenue and almost $12 billion in gross merchandise sales. The firm monetizes its marketplace primarily through transaction fees and advertising, with core categories spanning homeware, jewelry, apparel, and craft supplies. The US drives 74% of sales, though its core geographic reach extends to the UK, Germany, Canada, and Australia.
70GF Score

Get the complete analysis for MEX:ETSY

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

MXN1,496.00
Price
MXN1,154.38
GF Value