UPM-Kymmene Oyj (MEX:UPMN) Beneish M-Score: -2.80 (As of Jul. 09, 2026)


MEX:UPMN UPM-Kymmene Oyj MEX:UPMN
79 GF Score
Price MXN696.85
GF Value MXN762.83
! 5 Warning Signs
View Full Analysis

What is UPM-Kymmene Oyj Beneish M-Score?

UPM-Kymmene Oyj MEX:UPMN 79 Beneish M-Score is -2.80 as of Jul. 09, 2026. GuruFocus rates MEX:UPMN with a GF Score™ of 79/100 and a GF Value™ of MXN762.83. The stock has 5 warning signs investors should review. Among 272 Forest Products companies, UPM-Kymmene Oyj ranks better than 74.26% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.8 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for UPM-Kymmene Oyj's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

MEX:UPMN' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.03   Med: -2.73   Max: -2.06
Current: -2.8

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of UPM-Kymmene Oyj was -2.06. The lowest was -3.03. And the median was -2.73.


UPM-Kymmene Oyj Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for UPM-Kymmene Oyj's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

UPM-Kymmene Oyj Beneish M-Score Chart

UPM-Kymmene Oyj Annual Data
Trend Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.38 -2.18 -3.03 -2.78 -2.80

UPM-Kymmene Oyj Quarterly Data
Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25 Jun25 Sep25 Dec25 Mar26
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 0.00 0.00 0.00 -2.80 0.00

MEX:UPMN vs SLVM: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Paper & Paper Products subindustry, UPM-Kymmene Oyj's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


UPM-Kymmene Oyj Beneish M-Score vs Forest Products Industry

For the Forest Products industry and Basic Materials sector, UPM-Kymmene Oyj's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where UPM-Kymmene Oyj's Beneish M-Score falls into.


MEX:UPMN
79GF Score
UPM-Kymmene Oyj MEX:UPMN
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

UPM-Kymmene Oyj Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of UPM-Kymmene Oyj for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.8331+0.528 * 1.0836+0.404 * 1.0844+0.892 * 0.9017+0.115 * 1.6552
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1+4.679 * -0.052761-0.327 * 1.0362
=-2.83

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Dec25) TTM:Last Year (Dec24) TTM:
Total Receivables was MXN26,903 Mil.
Revenue was MXN203,587 Mil.
Gross Profit was MXN72,761 Mil.
Total Current Assets was MXN88,426 Mil.
Total Assets was MXN369,644 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was MXN152,585 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was MXN12,524 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was MXN0 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was MXN47,102 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was MXN74,363 Mil.
Net Income was MXN10,120 Mil.
Gross Profit was MXN0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was MXN29,623 Mil.
Total Receivables was MXN35,815 Mil.
Revenue was MXN225,788 Mil.
Gross Profit was MXN87,441 Mil.
Total Current Assets was MXN109,956 Mil.
Total Assets was MXN417,027 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was MXN173,244 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was MXN24,874 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was MXN0 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was MXN52,281 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was MXN79,972 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(26903.13 / 203586.697) / (35815.024 / 225787.521)
=0.132146 / 0.158623
=0.8331

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(87441.071 / 225787.521) / (72760.739 / 203586.697)
=0.387271 / 0.357394
=1.0836

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (88426.119 + 152584.603) / 369643.949) / (1 - (109956.492 + 173244.26) / 417026.646)
=0.347992 / 0.320905
=1.0844

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=203586.697 / 225787.521
=0.9017

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(24873.971 / (24873.971 + 173244.26)) / (12523.871 / (12523.871 + 152584.603))
=0.125551 / 0.075852
=1.6552

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(0 / 203586.697) / (0 / 225787.521)
=0 / 0
=1

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((74363.119 + 47101.562) / 369643.949) / ((79972.328 + 52281.2) / 417026.646)
=0.328599 / 0.317134
=1.0362

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(10120.3 - 0 - 29622.961) / 369643.949
=-0.052761

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

UPM-Kymmene Oyj has a M-score of -2.83 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.80 mean?
UPM-Kymmene Oyj (MEX:UPMN) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.80 as of Jul. 09, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on UPM-Kymmene Oyj and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, UPM-Kymmene Oyj ranks #70 out of 272 companies in the Forest Products industry, placing it in the top 25.7%.
Is UPM-Kymmene Oyj's Beneish M-Score too high?
UPM-Kymmene Oyj's current Beneish M-Score is -2.80. Based on the distribution chart, UPM-Kymmene Oyj ranks #70 out of 272 companies in the Forest Products industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, UPM-Kymmene Oyj has a GF Score™ of 79/100, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does UPM-Kymmene Oyj's Beneish M-Score compare to SLVM?
According to the Forest Products industry distribution chart, UPM-Kymmene Oyj ranks #70 out of 272 companies for Beneish M-Score. This puts UPM-Kymmene Oyj in the upper half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Forest Products company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Forest Products industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on UPM-Kymmene Oyj and its competitors. UPM-Kymmene Oyj's current Beneish M-Score is -2.80. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is UPM-Kymmene Oyj stock overvalued right now?
UPM-Kymmene Oyj (MEX:UPMN) has a current Beneish M-Score of -2.80. The stock's GF Value™ is MXN762.83, compared to a current price of MXN696.85 — trading 8.6% below its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.80. UPM-Kymmene Oyj's overall GF Score™ is 79/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For UPM-Kymmene Oyj (MEX:UPMN), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.80 as of Jul. 09, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is UPM-Kymmene Oyj (MEX:UPMN) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, UPM-Kymmene Oyj stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of MXN696.85 is trading 8.6% below its estimated GF Value™ of MXN762.83.

Key valuation signals for MEX:UPMN:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.80
  • GF Value™: MXN762.83 vs. price of MXN696.85 (8.6% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 79/100 with 5 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the MEX:UPMN stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


UPM-Kymmene Oyj Business Description

Address Alvar Aallon katu 1, P.O. Box 380, Helsinki, FIN, FI-00100
UPM-Kymmene Oyj is a Finnish paper and biomaterials company. The company produces products related to the forestry industry, including paper, pulp, and plywood. UPM is also the majority electricity generator in Finland and is one of the globalised producers of self-adhesive labeling materials. It delivers responsible solutions and innovation for a future beyond fossils across six business areas: UPM Fibres, UPM Energy, UPM Raflatac, UPM Specialty Papers, UPM Communication Papers, and UPM Plywood. Geographically, the company has operational footprints in Sweden, Finland, the Netherlands, and other regions.
79GF Score

Get the complete analysis for MEX:UPMN

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

MXN696.85
Price
MXN762.83
GF Value