Toll Brothers (STU:TLK) Beneish M-Score: -0.29 (As of Jun. 25, 2026)


STU:TLK Toll Brothers Inc STU:TLK
93 GF Score
Price €141.20
GF Value €120.20
Valuation Modestly Overvalued
! 7 Warning Signs
View Full Analysis

What is Toll Brothers Beneish M-Score?

Toll Brothers STU:TLK +6.49% 93 Beneish M-Score is -0.29 as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus rates STU:TLK with a GF Score™ of 93/100 and a GF Value™ of €120.20 (Modestly Overvalued). The stock has 7 warning signs investors should review. Among 89 Homebuilding & Construction companies, Toll Brothers ranks worse than 93.26% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Warning Sign:

Beneish M-Score -0.29 higher than -1.78, which implies that the company might have manipulated its financial results.

The historical rank and industry rank for Toll Brothers's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

STU:TLK' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.11   Med: -2.49   Max: -0.21
Current: -0.29

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Toll Brothers was -0.21. The lowest was -3.11. And the median was -2.49.


Toll Brothers Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for Toll Brothers's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Toll Brothers Beneish M-Score Chart

Toll Brothers Annual Data
Trend Oct16 Oct17 Oct18 Oct19 Oct20 Oct21 Oct22 Oct23 Oct24 Oct25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -3.11 -2.22 -2.15 -2.22 -2.41

Toll Brothers Quarterly Data
Jul21 Oct21 Jan22 Apr22 Jul22 Oct22 Jan23 Apr23 Jul23 Oct23 Jan24 Apr24 Jul24 Oct24 Jan25 Apr25 Jul25 Oct25 Jan26 Apr26
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.24 -2.13 -2.41 -0.21 -0.29

STU:TLK vs NVR, IBP, TMHC: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Residential Construction subindustry, Toll Brothers's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Toll Brothers Beneish M-Score vs Homebuilding & Construction Industry

For the Homebuilding & Construction industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Toll Brothers's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Toll Brothers's Beneish M-Score falls into.


STU:TLK
93GF Score
Toll Brothers Inc STU:TLK
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Toll Brothers Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Toll Brothers for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 3.6435+0.528 * 1.0809+0.404 * 0.6695+0.892 * 0.9639+0.115 * 0.6252
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.0022+4.679 * -0.007851-0.327 * 0.976
=-0.24

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Apr26) TTM:Last Year (Apr25) TTM:
Total Receivables was €465 Mil.
Revenue was 2164.202 + 1825.929 + 2940.699 + 2523.965 = €9,455 Mil.
Gross Profit was 517.181 + 405.919 + 728.313 + 635.372 = €2,287 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €11,366 Mil.
Total Assets was €12,426 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €243 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €66 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €901 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €2,790 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was €2,380 Mil.
Net Income was 222.805 + 179.503 + 383.728 + 316.765 = €1,103 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 4.856 + 46.397 + 19.241 + 4.136 = €75 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 114.955 + 6.185 + 687.226 + 317.356 = €1,126 Mil.
Total Receivables was €132 Mil.
Revenue was 2437.779 + 1795.921 + 3060.118 + 2515.164 = €9,809 Mil.
Gross Profit was 627.84 + 443.92 + 808.564 + 684.128 = €2,564 Mil.
Total Current Assets was €10,896 Mil.
Total Assets was €12,634 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was €498 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was €77 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was €933 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was €2,779 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was €2,607 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(464.953 / 9454.795) / (132.391 / 9808.982)
=0.049176 / 0.013497
=3.6435

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(2564.452 / 9808.982) / (2286.785 / 9454.795)
=0.261439 / 0.241865
=1.0809

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (11366.23 + 242.716) / 12425.865) / (1 - (10895.68 + 498.025) / 12634.283)
=0.065743 / 0.098191
=0.6695

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=9454.795 / 9808.982
=0.9639

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(77.305 / (77.305 + 498.025)) / (66.449 / (66.449 + 242.716))
=0.134366 / 0.214931
=0.6252

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(901.471 / 9454.795) / (933.2 / 9808.982)
=0.095345 / 0.095137
=1.0022

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((2380.057 + 2790.286) / 12425.865) / ((2607.309 + 2779.022) / 12634.283)
=0.416095 / 0.426327
=0.976

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(1102.801 - 74.63 - 1125.722) / 12425.865
=-0.007851

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Toll Brothers has a M-score of -0.24 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -0.29 mean?
Toll Brothers (STU:TLK) has a Beneish M-Score of -0.29 as of Jun. 25, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Toll Brothers and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Toll Brothers ranks #83 out of 89 companies in the Homebuilding & Construction industry, placing it in the top 93.3%.
Is Toll Brothers' Beneish M-Score too high?
Toll Brothers' current Beneish M-Score is -0.29. Based on the distribution chart, Toll Brothers ranks #83 out of 89 companies in the Homebuilding & Construction industry, which is in the bottom quartile relative to peers. Overall, Toll Brothers has a GF Score™ of 93/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Toll Brothers' Beneish M-Score compare to NVR and IBP?
According to the Homebuilding & Construction industry distribution chart, Toll Brothers ranks #83 out of 89 companies for Beneish M-Score. This places Toll Brothers in the lower half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Homebuilding & Construction company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Homebuilding & Construction industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Toll Brothers and its competitors. Toll Brothers's current Beneish M-Score is -0.29. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Toll Brothers stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Toll Brothers (STU:TLK) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is €120.20, compared to a current price of €141.20 — trading 17.5% above its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -0.29. Toll Brothers' overall GF Score™ is 93/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Toll Brothers (STU:TLK), the current Beneish M-Score is -0.29 as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Toll Brothers (STU:TLK) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Toll Brothers stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of €141.20 is trading 17.5% above its estimated GF Value™ of €120.20. GuruFocus considers Toll Brothers to be Modestly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for STU:TLK:

  • Beneish M-Score: -0.29
  • GF Value™: €120.20 vs. price of €141.20 (17.5% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 93/100 with 7 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the STU:TLK stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Toll Brothers Business Description

Other Exchanges TOL:USA1TOL:Italy0LFS:UK
Address 1140 Virginia Drive, Fort Washington, PA, USA, 19034
Toll Brothers is the leading luxury homebuilder in the United States with an average sale price well above public competitors'. The company operates in over 60 markets across 24 states and caters to move-up, active-adult, and second-homebuyers. Toll Brothers consistently ranks as a top 10 builder within the US according to total home closings. Traditional homebuilding operations represent most of the company's revenue. Toll Brothers also builds luxury for-sale and for-rent properties in urban centers across the US It has its headquarters in Horsham, Pennsylvania.
93GF Score

Get the complete analysis for STU:TLK

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

€141.20
Price
€120.20
GF Value