Okasan Securities Group (TSE:8609) Beneish M-Score: -2.45 (As of Jun. 27, 2026)


TSE:8609 Okasan Securities Group Inc TSE:8609
62 GF Score
Price 円959.00
GF Value 円890.47
Valuation Fairly Valued
! 4 Warning Signs
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What is Okasan Securities Group Beneish M-Score?

Okasan Securities Group TSE:8609 +0.42% 62 Beneish M-Score is -2.45 as of Jun. 27, 2026. GuruFocus rates TSE:8609 with a GF Score™ of 62/100 and a GF Value™ of 円890.47 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 4 warning signs investors should review. Among 702 Capital Markets companies, Okasan Securities Group ranks better than 62.39% on this metric.

Note: Financial institutions were excluded from the sample in Beneish paper when calculating Beneish M-Score. Thus, the prediction might not fit banks and insurance companies.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.45 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Okasan Securities Group's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

TSE:8609' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.01   Med: -2.46   Max: -2.13
Current: -2.45

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Okasan Securities Group was -2.13. The lowest was -3.01. And the median was -2.46.

TSE:8609
62GF Score
Okasan Securities Group Inc TSE:8609
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Okasan Securities Group Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Okasan Securities Group for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1+0.528 * 1+0.404 * 1.0002+0.892 * 1.1933+0.115 * 0.9381
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.9359+4.679 * -0.029611-0.327 * 1.0114
=-2.45

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Mar26) TTM:Last Year (Mar25) TTM:
Total Receivables was 円0 Mil.
Revenue was 円100,277 Mil.
Gross Profit was 円100,277 Mil.
Total Current Assets was 円0 Mil.
Total Assets was 円1,401,090 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was 円16,814 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was 円3,422 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was 円21,955 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was 円0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was 円541,098 Mil.
Net Income was 円21,360 Mil.
Gross Profit was 円0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 円62,847 Mil.
 Total Receivables was 円0 Mil.
Revenue was 円84,035 Mil.
Gross Profit was 円84,035 Mil.
Total Current Assets was 円0 Mil.
Total Assets was 円1,379,738 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was 円16,817 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was 円3,171 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was 円19,660 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was 円0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was 円526,870 Mil.

1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(0 / 100277) / (0 / 84035)
=0 / 0
=1

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(84035 / 84035) / (100277 / 100277)
=1 / 1
=1

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (0 + 16814) / 1401090) / (1 - (0 + 16817) / 1379738)
=0.987999 / 0.987811
=1.0002

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=100277 / 84035
=1.1933

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(3171 / (3171 + 16817)) / (3422 / (3422 + 16814))
=0.158645 / 0.169105
=0.9381

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(21955 / 100277) / (19660 / 84035)
=0.218944 / 0.23395
=0.9359

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((541098 + 0) / 1401090) / ((526870 + 0) / 1379738)
=0.386198 / 0.381862
=1.0114

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(21360 - 0 - 62847) / 1401090
=-0.029611

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Okasan Securities Group has a M-score of -2.45 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.45 mean?
Okasan Securities Group (TSE:8609) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.45 as of Jun. 27, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Okasan Securities Group and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Okasan Securities Group ranks #264 out of 702 companies in the Capital Markets industry, placing it in the top 37.6%.
Is Okasan Securities Group's Beneish M-Score too high?
Okasan Securities Group's current Beneish M-Score is -2.45. Based on the distribution chart, Okasan Securities Group ranks #264 out of 702 companies in the Capital Markets industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, Okasan Securities Group has a GF Score™ of 62/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Okasan Securities Group's Beneish M-Score compare to MS and GS?
According to the Capital Markets industry distribution chart, Okasan Securities Group ranks #264 out of 702 companies for Beneish M-Score. This puts Okasan Securities Group in the upper half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Capital Markets company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Capital Markets industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Okasan Securities Group and its competitors. Okasan Securities Group's current Beneish M-Score is -2.45. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Okasan Securities Group stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Okasan Securities Group (TSE:8609) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is 円890.47, compared to a current price of 円959.00 — trading 7.7% above its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.45. Okasan Securities Group's overall GF Score™ is 62/100 with 4 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Okasan Securities Group (TSE:8609), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.45 as of Jun. 27, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Okasan Securities Group (TSE:8609) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Okasan Securities Group stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of 円959.00 is trading 7.7% above its estimated GF Value™ of 円890.47. GuruFocus considers Okasan Securities Group to be Fairly Valued.

Key valuation signals for TSE:8609:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.45
  • GF Value™: 円890.47 vs. price of 円959.00 (7.7% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 62/100 with 4 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the TSE:8609 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Okasan Securities Group Business Description

Other Exchanges 8609:Japan
Address 1-17-6, Nihonbashi, Chuo-ku, Tokyo, JPN, 103-8268
Okasan Securities Group Inc is a Japan-based holding company that conducts businesses through a network of domestic and overseas subsidiaries. The company has three business segments. The securities business, which accounts for the majority of sales, is involved in trading, brokerage, underwriting, and distribution of securities, public offering, secondary distribution of securities, and private offering of securities. The asset-management business is involved in investment management and investment advisory. The support business is engaged in information processing services, administrative support services, custodianship, and temping services. The company generates the majority of revenue from Japan.
62GF Score

Get the complete analysis for TSE:8609

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

円959.00
Price
円890.47
GF Value