Taiwan Fund (Taiwan Fund) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to . Start your Free Trial

What is Taiwan Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Taiwan Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Taiwan Fund Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Taiwan Fund's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Taiwan Fund (Taiwan Fund) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Taiwan Fund Inc (NYSE:TWN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

c/o State Street Bank and Trust Company, One Lincoln Street, P.O. Box 5049, Boston, MA, USA, 02111

Website

https://www.thetaiwanfund.com

Taiwan Fund Inc is a diversified closed-end management investment company. Its investment objective is to seek long-term capital appreciation through investment predominantly in equity securities listed in Taiwan stock exchange and the Republic of China. In selecting the companies for investments fund's portfolio managers will consider overall growth prospects, competitive position in the respective industry technology, research, and development, productivity, profit margins, return on investment, capital resources, government regulation, management and other factors.

Executives

Anthony Clark	director	C/O ABERDEEN STANDARD INVESTMENTS, 1900 MARKET STREET, SUITE 200, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Maria R. Premole	officer: Vice President	C/O JAPAN SMALLER CAPITALIZATION FUND, WORLDWIDE PLAZA, 309 WEST 49TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Yuichi Nomoto	officer: President	WORLDWIDE PLAZA, 309 WEST 49TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019-7316
Warren Olsen	director	C/O AETOS ALTERNATIVES MANAGEMENT, LP, 875 THIRD AVENUE, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Aiden Redmond	officer: President	1633 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10019
William Kirby	director	22 CONCORD AVE., LEXINGTON MA 02421
Thomas Gregory Kamp	director	5821 SOUTHWOOD DRIVE, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55437
John Viggiano	other: Affiliated Person	1633 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10019
Gem Pushpaharan	other: Affiliated Person	1633 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10019
Peter Bonanno	other: Affiliated Person	1633 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10019
Douglas Eu	other: Affiliated Person	C/O ALLIANZ GLOBAL INVESTORS U.S. LLC, 1633 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10019
Thomas J Fuccillo	officer: President	1633 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10019
Xiao Corrina	other: Portfolio Manager	5F, NO. 378, FUXING N ROAD, TAIPEI F5 10476
Allianz Global Investors U.s. Holdings Llc	other: Affiliated Entity	1633 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10019
City Of London Investment Group Plc	10 percent owner	77 GRACECHURCH STREET, LONDON X0 EC3V0AS