AEIS (Advanced Energy Industries) Predictability Rank

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What is Advanced Energy Industries Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Advanced Energy Industries Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Advanced Energy Industries Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Advanced Energy Industries Inc (NAS:AEIS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AVX:Germany

Address

1595 Wynkoop Street, Suite 800, Denver, CO, USA, 80202

Website

https://www.advancedenergy.com

Advanced Energy Industries Inc provides precision power-conversion measurement and control solutions that transform power into various forms for use in manufacturing and industrial equipment and applications. The firm serves original equipment manufacturers and end customers in the semiconductor, flat panel display, solar panel, and other industrial capital equipment markets. Products include thin-film power-conversion systems, which control and modify raw electrical power into a customizable, predictable power source, and power control modules, which control and measure temperature during manufacturing cycles. A majority of the firm's revenue is generated in United States, with the rest from Mexico, Taiwan, China and All others.

Executives

Eduardo Bernal Acebedo	officer: EVP and COO	1595 WYNKOOP STREET, SUITE 800, DENVER CO 80202
Paul R Oldham	officer: EVP, CFO	1625 SHARP POINT DRIVE, FORT COLLINS CO 80525
Lanesha Minnix	director	TWO LAKESIDE COMMONS, BUILDING TWO, 980 HAMMOND DRIVE, SUITE 500, ATLANTA GA 30328
Tina Donikowski	director	1625 SHARP POINT DRIVE, FORT COLLINS CO 80525
Frederick Ball	director	C/O MARKETO, INC., 901 MARINER'S ISLAND BLVD., SUITE 500, SAN MATEO CA 94404
Anne Delsanto	director	1133 INNOVATION WAY, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Ronald C Foster	director	8000 S FEDERAL WAY, MS 1-557, BOISE ID 83716
John Donaghey	officer: EVP, Global Sales	1595 WYNKOOP STREET, SUITE 800, DENVER CO 80202
Brian Shirley	director	8000 S FEDERAL WAY, MS 1-557, BOISE ID 83716
Elizabeth Karpinski Vonne	officer: EVP, General Counsel	1595 WYNKOOP STREET, SUITE 800, DENVER CO 80202
Reed David	director	6501 WILLIAM CANNON DRIVE WEST, AUSTIN TX 78735
Stephen Douglas Kelley	officer: President and CEO	1900 S. PRICE ROAD, CHANDLER AZ 85286
Yuval Wasserman	officer: EVP, Sales, Service & Mktg	1625 SHARP POINT DRIVE, FORT COLLINS CO 80525
Dana Edward Huth	officer: CHIEF REVENUE OFFICER	1595 WYNKOOP STREET, SUITE 800, DENVER CO 80202
Thomas O Mcgimpsey	officer: EVP Gen Counsel & Corp Sec	380 INTERLOCKEN CRESCENT, BROOMFIELD CO 80021