Akebia Therapeutics (Akebia Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Akebia Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Akebia Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Akebia Therapeutics (Akebia Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Akebia Therapeutics Inc (NAS:AKBA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AX9:Germany AX9:Germany

Address

245 First Street, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02142

Website

https://www.akebia.com

Akebia Therapeutics Inc is a fully integrated biopharmaceutical company. The Company's operating segment is the business of developing and commercializing novel therapeutics for people with kidney disease. The current portfolio of the company includes 1) Auryxia (ferric citrate), a medicine approved and marketed in the United States for the control of serum phosphorus levels in adult patients with dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease and the treatment of iron deficiency anemia, in adult patients with non-dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease. 2) Vafseo (vadadustat), an oral hypoxia-inducible factor prolyl hydroxylase, inhibitor, is approved in Japan for the treatment of anemia due to chronic kidney disease, in adult patients. 3) HIF-PH inhibitors in preclinical development.

Executives

Ellen Snow	officer: SVP, CFO and Treasurer	C/O PEAR THERAPEUTICS, INC., 200 STATE STREET, 13TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02109
Michel Dahan	officer: SVP, Chief Business Officer	C/O AKEBIA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 245 FIRST STREET, SUITE 1100, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Nicole R. Hadas	officer: SVP, General Counsel, Sec.	20 PILGRAM DRIVE, WINCHESTER MA 01890
David A Spellman	officer: SVP, CFO and Treasurer	840 MEMORIAL DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Steven Keith Burke	officer: SVP, Chief Medical Officer	82 WILLIS ROAD, SUDBURY MA 01776
John P. Butler	director, officer: CEO & President	C/O RELYPSA, INC., 700 SAGINAW DR., REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Steven C Gilman	director	110 HARTWELL AVENUE, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Violetta Cotreau	officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer	245 FIRST STREET, 14TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Ron Frieson	director	245 FIRST STREET, 14TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Dell Faulkingham	officer: CCO	C/O AKEBIA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 245 FIRST STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Leanne M Zumwalt	director	C/O THE ADVISORY BOARD CO WATERGATGE, 600 NEW HAMPSHIRE AVE NW, WASHINGTON DC 20037
Maxine Gowen	director
Cynthia Smith	director	508 WRANGLER DRIVE, SUITE 100, COPPELL TX 75019
Myles Wolf	director	C/O AKEBIA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 245 FIRST STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Karen L Tubridy	officer: SVP, Chief Development Officer	ELEVEN BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC., 215 FIRST STREET, SUITE 400, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142