ALRTF (ALR Technologies SG) Predictability Rank

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What is ALR Technologies SG Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ALR Technologies SG Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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ALR Technologies SG Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » ALR Technologies SG Ltd (OTCPK:ALRTF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

9 Raffles Place, No. 26-01 Republic Plaza, Singapore, SGP, 048619

Website

https://www.alrt.com

ALR Technologies SG Ltd is a medical device company that focuses on commercializing its Health-e-Connect System. The company is a data management company that developed a comprehensive approach to diabetes care that includes an FDA-cleared and HIPAA-compliant Diabetes Solution product that can collect data from BGM and CGM; a patent-pending Predictive A1C algorithm to track treatment success between lab reports; and an FDA-cleared Insulin Dosing Adjustment program. Its geographical segments are the United States, which derives maximum revenue, Singapore, and Others.

Executives

Sidney Chan	director, officer: CEO	7400 BEAUFONT SPRINGS DRIVE, SUITE 300, SUITE 300, RICHMOND VA 23225
Ronald Cheng	director	255 SPRINGFIELD ROAD, OTTAWA A6 K1M 0K8
Peter H Stafford	director	1-405 81ST STREET, OSOYOOS A1 V0H 1V2
William S Smith	director, officer: Chief Commercial Officer	46 CHESTNUT HILL ROAD, WILTON CT 06897
Kenneth Robulak	director	521 MANDALAY AVENUE, APT. 302, CLEARWATER FL 33767
Alfonso Salas	director	2106 WEST 33RD AVENUE, VANCOUVER A1 V6M 1B9
Lawrence A Weinstein	director, officer: President	13436 BLUE HEON LOOP, CHESTERFIELD VA 23838
Jaroslav V Tichy	officer: Vice-President - Technologies	114M REYNOLDA VILLAGE, WINSTON-SALEM NC 27106
Stanley Cruitt	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President	114M REYNOLDA VILLAGE, WINSTON-SALEM NC 27106