ALX Oncology Holdings (ALX Oncology Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is ALX Oncology Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ALX Oncology Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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ALX Oncology Holdings (ALX Oncology Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » ALX Oncology Holdings Inc (NAS:ALXO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

323 Allerton Avenue, South San Francisco, CA, USA, 94080

Website

https://www.alxoncology.com

ALX Oncology Holdings Inc is a clinical-stage immuno-oncology company focused on helping patients fight cancer by developing a pipeline of product candidates based on expertise in protein engineering and oncology led by the CD47 blocker, evorpacept, currently in phase 1 and 2 clinical trials. Cancer cells leverage CD47, a cell surface protein, as a don't eat me signal to evade detection by the immune system. The company is developing a next-generation checkpoint inhibitor designed to have a high affinity for CD47 and to avoid the limitations caused by hematologic toxicities inherent in other CD47 blocking approaches.

Executives

Shelly Pinto	officer: VP, Finance and CAO	866 MALCOLM ROAD, SUITE 100, BURLINGAME CA 94010
Peter S Garcia	officer: Chief Financial Officer	ALX ONCOLOGY HOLDINGS INC., 866 MALCOLM ROAD, SUITE 100, BURLINGAME CA 94010
Sophia Randolph	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O ALX ONCOLOGY HOLDINGS INC., 866 MALCOLM ROAD, SUITE 100, BURLINGAME CA 94010
Jaume Pons	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O ALX ONCOLOGY HOLDINGS INC., 866 MALCOLM ROAD, SUITE 100, BURLINGAME CA 94010
J. Scott Garland	director	210 EAST GRAND AVE., SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Itziar Canamasas	director	C/O ALX ONCOLOGY HOLDINGS INC, 323 ALLERTON AVENUE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Jason Lettmann	director, 10 percent owner	C/O RA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 87 CAMBRIDGEPARK DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Lsv Associates, Llc	10 percent owner	2884 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 121, MENLO PARK CA 94025
G. Walmsley Graham	director	ONE SANSOME STREET, SUITE 1650, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Goodman Corey S	director, 10 percent owner, other: Executive Chairman	1700 OWENS STREET, SUITE 595, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
Rekha Hemrajani	director	3928 POINT EDEN WAY, HAYWARD CA 94545
Venbio Global Strategic Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner, other: See Remarks	1700 OWENS STREET, SUITE 595, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
Vivo Opportunity Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	192 LYTTON AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Vivo Opportunity, Llc	10 percent owner	192 LYTTON AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Steffen Pietzke	officer: VP Fin & Chief Acct Officer	C/O ENOVIX CORPORATION, 3501 W. WARREN AVENUE, FREMONT CA 94538