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Anzu Special Acquisition I (Anzu Special Acquisition I) Predictability Rank


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What is Anzu Special Acquisition I Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Anzu Special Acquisition I Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Anzu Special Acquisition I Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Anzu Special Acquisition I (Anzu Special Acquisition I) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Anzu Special Acquisition Corp I (NAS:ANZUU) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
TBCP TRAQ EQD DGNU PV UNEX SNRH FINM HHLA AGAC GSHN PSTH XAMS:EPIC ASZ CCYC CVII KAHC DWAC IPOF PBAJ
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
12610 Race Track Road, Suite 250, Tampa, FL, USA, 33626
Website
https://www.anzuspac.com
Anzu Special Acquisition Corp I is a blank check company.
Executives
Charles Brynelsen director 100 ABBOTT PARK ROAD, ABBOTT PARK IL 60064
Mona Chetan Patel director C/O 4875 WHITE BEAR LAKE PARKWAY, WHITE BEAR LAKE MN 55110
Janis Smith-gomez director C/O 4875 WHITE BEAR PARKWAY, WHITE BEAR LAKE MN 55110
Brent T. Lucas director, officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O 4875 WHITE BEAR PARKWAY, WHITE BEAR LAKE MN 55110
David R. Wells officer: Chief Financial Officer 2801 OCEAN PARK BLVD., SUITE 339, SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Glen A Taylor director, 10 percent owner C/O TAYLOR CORP, 1725 ROE CREST DR, N MANKALO MN 56002
Plc Barclays 10 percent owner 1 CHURCHILL PLACE, CANARY WHARF, LONDON X0 E14 5HP
Atlas Merchant Capital Llc 10 percent owner 477 MADISON AVENUE, 22ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Daniel J. Hirsch director, officer: CFO and Corporate Secretary 748 DIAMOND STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94114
Diane L Dewbrey director FIFTH THIRD BANCORP, 38 FOUNTAIN SQ PLZ, CINCINNATI OH 45263
Peter Ganz officer: GC and Corporate Secretary C/O FOSTER WHEELER LTD., PERRYVILLE CORPORATE PARK, CLINTON NJ 08809-4000
Teresa A Harris director 1820 E BIG BEAVER RD, TROY MI 48083
Susan Kantor director C/O LIONBRIDGE TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 1050 WINTER STREET, SUITE 2300, WALTHAM MA 02451
Anzu Spac Gp I Llc 10 percent owner 12610 RACE TRACT ROAD, SUITE 250, TAMPA FL 33626
Whitney Haring-smith director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 12610 RACE TRACT ROAD, SUITE 250, TAMPA FL 33626