What is Apogee Therapeutics Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Apogee Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Apogee Therapeutics (Apogee Therapeutics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
221 Crescent Street, Building 17, Suite 102b, Waltham, MA, USA, 02453
Apogee Therapeutics Inc is a biotechnology company seeking to develop differentiated biologics for the treatment of atopic dermatitis (AD), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and related inflammatory and immunology (I&I) indications with high unmet need. Its antibody programs are designed to overcome the limitations of existing therapies by targeting well-established mechanisms of action and incorporating advanced antibody engineering to optimize half-life and other properties. Its two most advanced programs are APG777 and APG808, which they initially develop for treating AD and COPD, respectively. With its broad pipeline and depth of expertise, the company believes it can deliver value and meaningful benefits to patients underserved by today's standard of care.
Executives
| Mark C. Mckenna |
director |
400 SOMERSET CORPORATE BOULEVARD, BRIDGEWATER NJ 08807 |
| Nimish P Shah |
director |
7 BRYANT PARK, 23RD FLOOR, NEW YORK CITY NY 10018 |
| Jane Henderson |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O ELEVEN BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC., 215 FIRST STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Peter Evan Harwin |
director |
2001 MARKET STREET, SUITE 2500, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103 |
| Jones William A Jr |
director |
NITROMED, INC., 125 SPRING STREET, LEXINGTON MA 02421 |
| Fairmount Funds Management Llc |
director |
200 BARR HARBOR DRIVE, SUITE 400, WEST CONSHOHOCKEN PA 19428 |
| Michael Thomas Henderson |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
421 KIPLING STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94301 |
| Fairmount Healthcare Fund L.p. |
director |
2001 MARKET STREET, SUITE 2500, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103 |
| Fairmount Healthcare Fund Ii L.p. |
director |
200 BARR HARBOR DRIVE, SUITE 400, WEST CONSHOHOCKEN PA 19428 |
| Tomas Kiselak |
director |
2001 MARKET STREET, SUITE 2500, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103 |
| Jennifer A. Fox |
director |
C/O NUVATION BIO INC., 1500 BROADWAY, SUITE 1401, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| Andrew Gottesdiener |
director |
3340 HILLVIEW AVE, PALO ALTO CA 94304 |
| Fairmount Healthcare Co-invest Ii L.p. |
director |
200 BARR HARBOR DRIVE, SUITE 400, WEST CONSHOHOCKEN PA 19428 |
| Carl Dambkowski |
officer: Chief Medical Officer |
221 CRESCENT ST., BUILDING 17, SUITE 102B, WALTHAM MA 02453 |
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