What is Armata Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Armata Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Armata Pharmaceuticals Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
5005 McConnell Avenue, Los Angeles, CA, USA, 90066
Armata Pharmaceuticals Inc is a developer of pathogen-specific bacteriophage therapeutics for the treatment of antibiotic-resistant and difficult-to-treat bacterial infections using its proprietary bacteriophage-based technology. The company is developing and advancing a broad pipeline of natural and synthetic phage candidates, including clinical candidates for Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Staphylococcus aureus, and other pathogens. In addition, in collaboration with Merck, the company is developing proprietary synthetic phage candidates to target an undisclosed infectious disease agent.
Executives
| Richard Rychlik |
officer: Corporate Controller and PFO |
5005 MCCONNELL AVENUE, LOS ANGELES CA 90066 |
| Deborah Birx |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
3300 LOWELL STREET NW, WASHINGTON DC 20008 |
| Julianne Averill |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
361 NEWBURY STREET, SUITE 500, BOSTON MA 02115 |
| Erin Butler |
officer: Vice President,Finance & Admin |
4375 LOMA RIVIERA COURT, SAN DIEGO CA 92110 |
| Theravance Inc |
director, 10 percent owner |
1350 OLD BAYSHORE HIGHWAY, SUITE 400, BURLINGAME CA 94010 |
| Jules Haimovitz |
director |
601 108TH AVENUE NE, SUITE 1200, BELLEVUE WA 98004 |
| Innoviva Strategic Opportunities Llc |
director, 10 percent owner |
1209 ORANGE STREET, WILMINGTON DE 19801 |
| Robin Kramer |
director |
999 VANDERBILT BEACH ROAD, 3RD FLOOR, NAPLES FL 34109 |
| Steven Robert Martin |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
11011 NORTH TORREY PINES ROAD, LA JOLLA CA 92037 |
| Kostas D Odysseas |
director |
660 STEAMBOAT ROAD, 3RD FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| Sarah J. Schlesinger |
director |
C/O ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS, 26 LANDSDOWNE STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
| Jeremy Curnock Cook |
director |
TARGETED GENETICS CORP, 1100 OLIVE WAY STE 100, SEATTLE WA 98101 |
| Michael S Perry |
director |
C/O BIOTRANSPLANT INC, 196 BOSTON AVE SUITE 2800, MEDFORD MA 02155 |
| Todd C. Peterson |
director |
C/O ARMATA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 4503 GLENCOE AVENUE, MARINA DEL REY CA 90292 |
| H Stewart Parker |
director |
|
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