What is Arch Therapeutics Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Arch Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Arch Therapeutics Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
235 Walnut Street, Suite 6, Framingham, MA, USA, 01702
Arch Therapeutics Inc is a development-stage biotechnology company. It focuses on developing products that manage surgery and interventional care faster and safer by using a novel approach to stop bleeding, control leaking, and provide other advantages during surgery and trauma care. The company's primary product candidate, collectively known as the AC5 Devices (AC5), is designed to achieve hemostasis in surgical procedures. The company operates its business operations in the United States.
Executives
| Terrence W Norchi |
director, officer: President & CEO |
C/O ARCH THERAPEUTICS, INC., PO BOX 748, NATICK MA 01760 |
| Michael S Abrams |
officer: CFO and Treasurer |
64 RAMSHEAD ROAD, RAYNHAM MA 02767 |
| Laurence Hicks |
director |
C/O ARCH THERAPEUTICS, INC., 235 WALNUT STREET, SUITE 6, FRAMINGHAM MA 01702 |
| Guy L. Fish |
director |
C/O ARCH THERAPEUTICS, INC., 235 WALNUT STREET, SUITE 6, FRAMINGHAM MA 01702 |
| Dan Yrigoyen |
officer: Vice President, Sales |
C/O ARCH THERAPEUTICS, INC., 235 WALNUT STREET, SUITE 6, FRAMINGHAM MA 01702 |
| James R Sulat |
director |
|
| Punit Dhillon |
director |
5820 NANCY RIDGE DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Richard E Davis |
officer: CFO & Treasurer |
|
| Avtar S Dhillon |
director |
C/O GENETRONICS INC, 11199 SORRENTO VALLEY ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Arthur L Rosenthal |
director |
100 CYBERONICS BLVD., HOUSTON TX 77058 |
| Alan Barber |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O ARCH THERAPEUTICS, INC., PO BOX 748, NATICK MA 01760 |
| William M Cotter |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
C/O CLOSURE MEDICAL CORP, 5250 GREEN DAIRY RD, RALEIGH NC 27616 |
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
ARTHQ has been successfully added to your