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ARTHQ (Arch Therapeutics) Predictability Rank


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What is Arch Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Arch Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Arch Therapeutics Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Arch Therapeutics's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Arch Therapeutics Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
235 Walnut Street, Suite 6, Framingham, MA, USA, 01702
Arch Therapeutics Inc is a development-stage biotechnology company. It focuses on developing products that manage surgery and interventional care faster and safer by using a novel approach to stop bleeding, control leaking, and provide other advantages during surgery and trauma care. The company's primary product candidate, collectively known as the AC5 Devices (AC5), is designed to achieve hemostasis in surgical procedures. The company operates its business operations in the United States.
Executives
Terrence W Norchi director, officer: President & CEO C/O ARCH THERAPEUTICS, INC., PO BOX 748, NATICK MA 01760
Michael S Abrams officer: CFO and Treasurer 64 RAMSHEAD ROAD, RAYNHAM MA 02767
Laurence Hicks director C/O ARCH THERAPEUTICS, INC., 235 WALNUT STREET, SUITE 6, FRAMINGHAM MA 01702
Guy L. Fish director C/O ARCH THERAPEUTICS, INC., 235 WALNUT STREET, SUITE 6, FRAMINGHAM MA 01702
Dan Yrigoyen officer: Vice President, Sales C/O ARCH THERAPEUTICS, INC., 235 WALNUT STREET, SUITE 6, FRAMINGHAM MA 01702
James R Sulat director
Punit Dhillon director 5820 NANCY RIDGE DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Richard E Davis officer: CFO & Treasurer
Avtar S Dhillon director C/O GENETRONICS INC, 11199 SORRENTO VALLEY ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Arthur L Rosenthal director 100 CYBERONICS BLVD., HOUSTON TX 77058
Alan Barber officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O ARCH THERAPEUTICS, INC., PO BOX 748, NATICK MA 01760
William M Cotter officer: Chief Operating Officer C/O CLOSURE MEDICAL CORP, 5250 GREEN DAIRY RD, RALEIGH NC 27616

Arch Therapeutics Headlines

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