What is Artelo Biosciences Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Artelo Biosciences Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Artelo Biosciences Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
505 Lomas Santa Fe, Suite 160, Solana Beach, CA, USA, 92075
Artelo Biosciences Inc is a United States-based development-stage biopharmaceutical company. It is engaged in the development of therapeutics that target lipid signaling pathways, including the endocannabinoid system, a family of receptors & neurotransmitters that form a biochemical communication network in the body. It is focused on discovering, licensing, developing, & commercializing treatments that control endocannabinoid systems. The company pursues technologies & programs that offer proprietary approaches to cannabinoid-based therapies, & those derived from the cannabis plant & synthetic cannabinoids, as well as new chemical entities & compounds. The firm's flagship program is designed to be a patent-protected cannabinoid drug combination treatment for a rare & orphan disease.
Executives
| Gregory D. Gorgas |
director, officer: See Remarks |
888 PROSPECT, SUITE 210, LA JOLLA CA 92037 |
| Tamara A Seymour |
director |
C/O SIGNAL GENETICS, INC., 5740 FLEET STREET, CARLSBAD CA 92008 |
| Gregory Reyes |
director |
200 CONNELL DRIVE, SUITE 1500, BERKELEY HEIGHTS NJ 07922 |
| Matsui Connie |
director |
3030 CALLAN RD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| John W Beck |
director |
C/O RITTER PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 1880 CENTURY PARK EAST, SUITE 1000, LOS ANGELES CA 90067 |
| Robert Martin Emanuele |
director |
|
| David J Moss |
10 percent owner |
C/O PEGASI ENERGY RESOURCES CORPORATION, 218 N. BROADWAY, SUITE 204, TYLER TX 75702 |
| Georgia Erbez |
director |
6300 DUMBARTON CIRCLE, FREMONT CA 94555 |
| Steven Kelly |
director |
C/O INNOVIVE PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 555 MADISON AVENUE, 25TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Douglas Blayney |
director |
C/O ARTELO BIOSCIENCES, INC., 888 PROSPECT ST, SUITE 210, LA JOLLA CA 92037 |
| Peter Michael O'brien |
10 percent owner |
C/O ARTELO BIOSCIENCES, INC., 888 PROSPECT ST, SUITE 210, LA JOLLA CA 92037 |
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