ASLE (AerSale) Predictability Rank

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What is AerSale Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

AerSale Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

AerSale Predictability Rank Related Terms

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AerSale Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » AerSale Corp (NAS:ASLE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

9850 NW 41st Street, Suite 400, Doral, FL, USA, 33178

Website

https://www.aersale.com

AerSale Corp is an integrated, diversified leader in aviation aftermarket products and services. It specializes in the sale, lease, and exchange of used aircraft, engines, and components, in addition to providing a broad range of maintenance, repair, and overhaul, and engineering services for commercial aircraft and components. The company operating segment includes Asset Management Solutions and TechOps. It generates maximum revenue from the Asset Management Solutions segment.

Executives

Nicholas Finazzo	director, officer: See Remarks	C/O AERSALE CORPORATION, 255 ALHAMBRA CIRCLE, SUITE 435, CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Frederick Craig Wright	officer: See Remarks	C/O AERSALE CORPORATION, 121 ALHAMBRA PLAZA, SUITE 1700, CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Benjamin Thomas Tschirhart	officer: See Remarks	255 ALHAMBRA CIRCLE, SUITE 435, CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Judith Ann Fedder	director	1843 CHEROKEE ROSE CIRCLE, MT PLEASANT SC 29466
Claude Robert Kehler	director	C/O MONOCLE ACQUISITION CORPORATION, 750 LEXINGTON AVENUE, SUITE 1501, NEW YORK NY 10022
Robert B. Nichols	director, officer: See Remarks	C/O AERSALE CORPORATION, 121 ALHAMBRA PLAZA, SUITE 1700, CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Martin Garmendia	officer: See Remarks	C/O AERSALE CORPORATION, 121 ALHAMBRA PLAZA, SUITE 1700, CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Michael Kirton	director, 10 percent owner	11111 SANTA MONICA BOULEVARD, SUITE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Green Equity Investors Cf, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	11111 SANTA MONICA BOULEVARD, SUITE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
James Fry	officer: See Remarks	YRC WORLDWIDE, INC., 10990 ROE AVENUE, OVERLAND PARK KS 66211
Basil Barimo	officer: See Remarks	C/O AERSALE CORPORATION, 121 ALHAMBRA PLAZA, SUITE 1700, CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Andrew C Levy	director	8360 S. DURANGO DRIVE, LAS VEGAS NV 89113
Charles P Mcdonald	officer: See Remarks	HLH BUILDING, 101 WORLD DRIVE, PEACHTREE CITY GA 30269
Green Equity Investors Side Cf, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	11111 SANTA MONICA BOULEVARD, SUITE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Lgp Associates Cf, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	11111 SANTA MONICA BOULEVARD, SUITE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025