Anterix (Anterix) Predictability Rank

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What is Anterix Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Anterix Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Anterix (Anterix) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Telecommunication Services » Anterix Inc (NAS:ATEX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2X6:Germany

Address

3 Garret Mountain Plaza, Suite 401, Woodland Park, NJ, USA, 07424

Website

https://www.anterix.com

Anterix Inc is a United States-based company engaged in delivering broadband needed to modernize infrastructure for energy, transportation, logistics, and other industries. It offers Private LTE for utilities which help to automate processes, monitor environmental conditions, enable artificial intelligence, and drive productivity.

Executives

Jeffrey A Altman	10 percent owner	640 FIFTH AVENUE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Gena L Ashe	officer: General Counsel & Secretary	C/O GXO LOGISTICS, INC., TWO AMERICAN LANE, GREENWICH CT 06831
Mahvash Yazdi	director	EDISON INTERNATIONAL, 2244 WALNUT GROVE AVE, ROSEMEAD CA 91770
Morgan E Obrien	director, officer: Vice Chairman of the Board	GTT COMMUNICATIONS, INC., 7900 TYSONS ONE PLACE, SUITE 1450, MCLEAN VA 22102
Robert Harris Schwartz	officer: Chief Strategy & Development	3 GARRET MOUNTAIN PLAZA, SUITE 401, WOODLAND PARK NJ 07424
Timothy Gray	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3 GARRET MOUNTAIN PLAZA, SUITE 401, WOODLAND PARK NJ 07424
Christopher Guttman-mccabe	officer: Chief Reg & Comm Officer	3 GARRET MOUNTAIN PLAZA, SUITE 401, WOODLAND PARK NJ 07424
Ryan Gerbrandt	officer: Chief Operating Officer	3 GARRET MOUNTAIN PLAZA, SUITE 401, WOODLAND PARK NJ 07424
Hamid Akhavan	director	1226 EARNESTINE ST., MCLEAN VA 22101
Leslie B Daniels	director	540 MADISON, 22ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Elaine Gangeri	officer: Chief Acc Officer, Asst Sect	3 GARRET MOUNTAIN PLAZA, SUITE 401, WOODLAND PARK NJ 07424
Owl Creek Asset Management, L.p.	10 percent owner	640 FIFTH AVENUE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Brian Mcauley	director, officer: Chairman of the Board	201 ROUTE 17 N, RUTHERFORD NJ 07070
Gregory A Pratt	director	7500 GREENWAY CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 1600, 7500 GREENWAY CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 1600, GREENBELT MD 20770
Thomas Clark Akers	director	3 GARRET MOUNTAIN PLAZA, SUITE 401, WOODLAND PARK NJ 07424