ATMU (Atmus Filtration Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is Atmus Filtration Technologies Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Atmus Filtration Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Atmus Filtration Technologies Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc (NYSE:ATMU) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

26 Century Boulevard, Nashville, TN, USA, 37214

Website

https://www.atmus.com

Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc manufactures filtration products for on-highway commercial vehicles and off-highway agriculture, construction, mining, and power generation vehicles and equipment. It designs and manufactures Developed filtration products, principally under the Fleetguard brand, that enable lower emissions and provide asset protection. It designs, manufactures, and sells filters, coolants, and chemical products. The company offers products for first-fit and aftermarket applications including air filters, fuel filters, fuel water separators, lube filters, hydraulic filters, coolants, fuel additives, and other filtration systems to original equipment manufacturers, dealers/distributors, and end-users.

Executives

Gretchen R Haggerty	director
Stephen E. Macadam	director	C/O ENPRO INDUSTRIES, INC., 5605 CARNEGIE BLVD., STE. 500, CHARLOTTE NC 28209
Renee Swan	officer: Chief People Officer	26 CENTURY BOULEVARD, ONE CENTURY PLACE, SUITE 500, NASHVILLE TN 37214
Cummins Inc	10 percent owner	BOX 3005 MAIL CODE 60207, 500, COLUMBUS IN 47202-3005
Nathan R Stoner	director	500 JACKSON STREET, COLUMBUS IN 47201
Jane A Leipold	director	C/O TYCO ELECTRONICS LTD, 1050 WESTLAKES DRIVE, BERWYN PA 19312
Mark Andrew Smith	director	500 JACKSON STREET, COLUMBUS IN 47201
Earl Newsome	director	505 HUNTMAR PARK DR, SUITE 300, HERNDON VA 20170
Tony Satterthwaite	director	1400 73RD AVENUE NE, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432
Mark Osowick	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	26 CENTURY BOULEVARD, NASHVILLE TN 37214
Steph Disher	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	26 CENTURY BOULEVARD, NASHVILLE TN 37214
Toni Hickey	officer: Chief Legal Officer	26 CENTURY BOULEVARD, NASHVILLE TN 37214
Cristina Burrola	director	26 CENTURY BOULEVARD, NASHVILLE TN 37214
Charles Masters	officer: VP, Engine Products	26 CENTURY BOULEVARD, NASHVILLE TN 37214
Roy Edwin Bennett	director	26 CENTURY BOULEVARD, NASHVILLE TN 37214