Adhera Therapeutics (Adhera Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Adhera Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Adhera Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Adhera Therapeutics (Adhera Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Adhera Therapeutics Inc (OTCPK:ATRX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

8000 Innovation Parkway, Baton Rouge, LA, USA, 70820

Website

https://www.adherathera.com

Adhera Therapeutics Inc is an emerging specialty biotech company that is strategically evaluating its focus including a return to a drug discovery and development company.

Executives

Zahed Subhan	director	8000 INNOVATION PARKWAY, BATON ROUGE LA 70820
Trond Kydd Waerness	director	8000 INNOVATION PARKWAY, BAON ROUGE LA 70820
Rice Charles L Jr	director	C/O ENTERGY CORPORATION LEGAL DEPT., 639 LOYOLA AVE., 26TH FLOOR, NEW ORLEANS LA 70113
Andrew Albert Kucharchuk	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	549 MILGATE PLACE, BATON ROUGE LA 70810
Rhonda L. Stanley	officer: SVP Finance & Accounting	5001 SOUTH MIAMA BOULEVARD, SUITE 300, DURHAM NC 27703
Nancy R. Phelan	director	812 MAPLEWOOD ROAD, WAYNE PA 19087
Robert Eric Teague	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O MARINA BIOTECH, INC., 4721 EMPEROR BOULEVARD, SUITE 350, DURHAM NC 27703
Uli Hacksell	director	3911 SORRENTO VALLEY BOULEVARD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Robert Jr. Moscato	officer: CEO	400 PRATT STREET, SUITE 606, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Timothy Boris	director	805 AEROVISTA PLACE, SUITE 205, SAN LUIS OBISPO CA 93401
Isaac Blech	director	C/O INSPIREMD, INC., 321 COLUMBUS AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02116
Peter D. Weinstein	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C.O MARINA BIOTECH, INC., 17870 CASTLETON STREET, SUITE 250, CITY OF INDUSTRY CA 91748
Amit B. Shah	officer: Chief Financial Officer	10 AGUILA, ALISO VIEJO CA 92656
Erik C. Emerson	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	2300 WEST SAHARA AVENUE, SUITE 800 - #4012, LAS VEGAS NV 89102
Mihir Munsif	officer: Chief Operating Officer	21102 BRIARWOOD LANE, TRABUCO CANYON CA 92679