What is Avenue Therapeutics Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Avenue Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Avenue Therapeutics (Avenue Therapeutics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1111 Kane Concourse, Suite 301, Bay Harbor Islands, FL, USA, 33154
Avenue Therapeutics Inc is a specialty pharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of therapies for the treatment of rare and neurologic diseases. It focuses on developing its product candidate, AJ201, for spinal and bulbar muscular atrophy, BAER-101, an oral small molecule for CNS diseases, and IV Tramadol for the management of moderate-to-moderately-severe pain in adults.
Executives
| Rosenwald Lindsay A Md |
director |
375 PARK AVE, NEW YORK NY 10152 |
| Fortress Biotech, Inc. |
10 percent owner |
1111 KANE CONCOURSE, SUITE 301, BAY HARBOR ISLANDS FL 33154 |
| Invagen Pharmaceuticals, Inc. |
10 percent owner |
SITE B, 7 OSER AVE., HAUPPAUGE NY 11788 |
| Alexandra Maclean |
officer: Chief Executive Officer |
C/O AVENUE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 2 GANSEVOORT STREET, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NC 10014 |
| Faith L. Charles |
director |
ABEONA THERAPEUTICS INC., 1330 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS - FLOOR 33, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| David Jin |
officer: Int. PEO, Int. PFO, and COO |
C/O AVENUE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 1140 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, FLOOR 9, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| Joseph Walter Vazzano |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
1330 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Neil Herskowitz |
director |
2109 BROADWAY, SUITE 206, NEW YORK NY 10023 |
| Curtis Gale Oltmans |
director |
C/O ARRAY BIOPHARMA INC., 3200 WALNUT ST., BOULDER CO 80301 |
| Jay D Kranzler |
director |
4350 EXECUTIVE DRIVE, SUITE 325, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Lucy Lu |
director, officer: President, CEO |
THE FEMALE HEALTH COMPANY, 4400 BISCAYNE BOULEVARD, SUITE 888, MIAMI FL 33137 |
| Elizabeth Garrett Ingram |
director |
30930 RUSSELL RANCH ROAD, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91362 |
| Thomas Gregory Moore |
director |
C/O AKORN, INC., 1925 WEST FIELD COURT, SUITE 300, LAKE FOREST IL 60045 |
| Nishant Saxena |
director |
CIPLA HOUSE, PENINSULA BUSINESS PARK, LOWER PAREL, MUMBAI K7 400013 |
| Jaideep Ashok Gogtay |
director |
CIPLA LTD., MUMBA CENTRAL, BESIDE CITY CENTER, MUMBAI K7 400008 |
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