Golden Minerals Co (Golden Minerals Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Golden Minerals Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Golden Minerals Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Golden Minerals Co (Golden Minerals Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » Golden Minerals Co (AMEX:AUMN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AUMN:Canada

Address

350 Indiana Street, Suite 650, Golden, CO, USA, 80401

Website

https://www.goldenminerals.com

Golden Minerals Co is an exploration stage company engaged in the mining, construction, and exploration of precious metals and mineral properties. It owns and operates Velardena and Chicago precious metals mining properties and associated oxide and sulfide processing plants in the State of Durango, Mexico, the El Quevar exploration property in the province of Salta, Argentina, and a diversified portfolio of precious metals and other mineral exploration properties located in or near historical precious metals producing regions of Mexico. The company's business is structured into two divisions, Mexico operations, and Corporate Exploration and Other.

Executives

Pablo Castanos	officer: Executive Vice President	350 INDIANA STREET, SUITE 650, GOLDEN CO 80401
Andrew Pullar	director	LANDMARK SQUARE, 1ST FL., 64 EARTH CLOSE, WEST BAY BEACH SOUTH, P.O. BOX 10795, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1007
William Durand Eppler	director	165 GILPIN STREET, DENVER CO 80218
David Watkins	director	1717 SASAMAT STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6R 4S3
John Galassini	officer: Chief Operating Officer	350 INDIANA STREET, SUITE 650, GOLDEN CO 80401
Julie Weedman	officer: Senior VP and CFO	350 INDIANA STREET, SUITE 650, GOLDEN CO 80401
Robert P Vogels	officer: VP, Principal Acct Officer	1700 LINCOLN STREET, SUITE 3050, DENVER CO 80203
Sentient Global Resources Fund Iii, Lp	10 percent owner	P O BOX 10795, HARBOUR CENTER, GEORGETOWN E9 KY1-1007
Warren Rehn	officer: SVP Exploration/Chief Geol.	350 INDIANA STREET, SUITE 800, GOLDEN CO 80401
Jeffrey G Clevenger	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	1700 LINCOLN STREET, SUITE 3050, DENVER CO 80203
Deborah J Friedman	officer: Sr VP, Gen. Coun. & Corp. Secy	1700 LINCOLN STREET, SUITE 3050, DENVER CO 80203
Sentient Gp Iv, Lp	other: General Partner	P O BOX 10795, GRANDY CAYMAN KY1-1007 E9 00000
Sentient Global Resources Fund Iv, L.p.	10 percent owner	LANDMARK SQUARE, 64 EARTH CLOSE, WEST BAY BEACH SOUTH, GEORGE TOWN, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1107
Sentient Executive Gp Iv, Ltd	10 percent owner	P O BOX 10795, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1007
Michael Thomas Mason	director	142 STRATFORD AVE, GARDEN CITY NY 11530