GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » AvePoint Inc (NAS:AVPT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

AVPT (AvePoint) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 2021. Start your Free Trial

What is AvePoint Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


AvePoint Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

AvePoint Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of AvePoint's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


AvePoint Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
525 Washington Boulevard, Suite 1400, Jersey City, NJ, USA, 07310
AvePoint Inc provides customizable solutions to optimize SaaS operations, enable secure collaboration, and accelerate digital transformation across technologies and industries. Its Confidence Platform delivers a comprehensive set of cloud-based solutions enabling IT operations, development operations, and cybersecurity professionals to monitor and secure the digital workplace using SaaS tools.
Executives
Brian Michael Brown director, officer: COO and General Counsel C/O AVEPOINT, INC., 525 WASHINGTON BOULEVARD, SUITE 1400, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310
Zhijian Lu 10 percent owner C/O AVEPOINT, INC., 525 WASHINGTON BLVD, SUITE 1400, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310
James Caci officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O AVEPOINT, INC., 525 WASHINGTON BLVD., SUITE 1400, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310
Sixth Street Partners Management Company, L.p. 10 percent owner C/O SIXTH STREET PARTNERS, LLC, 2100 MCKINNEY AVENUE, SUITE 1500, DALLAS TX 75201
Alan Waxman 10 percent owner C/O SIXTH STREET PARTNERS, LLC, 345 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 2600, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Janet Schijns director 901 E BYRD STREET, SUITE 900, LEGAL DEPARTMENT, RICHMOND VA 23219
Sophia Wu officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O AVEPOINT, INC., 525 WASHINGTON BOULEVARD, SUITE 1400, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310
Tianyi Jiang director, officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O AVEPOINT, INC., 525 WASHINGTON BOULEVARD, SUITE 1400, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310
Xunkai Gong director, 10 percent owner, other: Executive Chairman C/O AVEPOINT, INC., 525 WASHINGTON BOULEVARD, SUITE 1400, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310
Stephen Cuunjieng director 1155 KAS DRIVE SUITE 100, RICHARDSON TX 75081
Andy Yong officer: Chief Investment Officer C/O AVEPOINT, INC., 525 WASHINGTON BOULEVARD, SUITE 1400, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310
Jeff Teper director C/O AVEPOINT, INC., 525 WASHINGTON BOULEVARD, SUITE 1400, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310
Ho John Chi On director C/O JANCHOR PARTNERS, ONE EXCHANGE SQUARE, CENTRAL K3 1608
Apex Technology Sponsor Llc 10 percent owner 533 AIRPORT BLVD SUITE 400, LA JOLLA CA 94010
Peter W Bell director