AVPT (AvePoint) Predictability Rank

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What is AvePoint Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

AvePoint Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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AvePoint Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » AvePoint Inc (NAS:AVPT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

525 Washington Boulevard, Suite 1400, Jersey City, NJ, USA, 07310

Website

https://www.avepoint.com

AvePoint Inc provides customizable solutions to optimize SaaS operations, enable secure collaboration, and accelerate digital transformation across technologies and industries. Its Confidence Platform delivers a comprehensive set of cloud-based solutions enabling IT operations, development operations, and cybersecurity professionals to monitor and secure the digital workplace using SaaS tools.

Executives

Brian Michael Brown	director, officer: COO and General Counsel	C/O AVEPOINT, INC., 525 WASHINGTON BOULEVARD, SUITE 1400, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310
Zhijian Lu	10 percent owner	C/O AVEPOINT, INC., 525 WASHINGTON BLVD, SUITE 1400, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310
James Caci	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O AVEPOINT, INC., 525 WASHINGTON BLVD., SUITE 1400, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310
Sixth Street Partners Management Company, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O SIXTH STREET PARTNERS, LLC, 2100 MCKINNEY AVENUE, SUITE 1500, DALLAS TX 75201
Alan Waxman	10 percent owner	C/O SIXTH STREET PARTNERS, LLC, 345 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 2600, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Janet Schijns	director	901 E BYRD STREET, SUITE 900, LEGAL DEPARTMENT, RICHMOND VA 23219
Sophia Wu	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O AVEPOINT, INC., 525 WASHINGTON BOULEVARD, SUITE 1400, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310
Tianyi Jiang	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O AVEPOINT, INC., 525 WASHINGTON BOULEVARD, SUITE 1400, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310
Xunkai Gong	director, 10 percent owner, other: Executive Chairman	C/O AVEPOINT, INC., 525 WASHINGTON BOULEVARD, SUITE 1400, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310
Stephen Cuunjieng	director	1155 KAS DRIVE SUITE 100, RICHARDSON TX 75081
Andy Yong	officer: Chief Investment Officer	C/O AVEPOINT, INC., 525 WASHINGTON BOULEVARD, SUITE 1400, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310
Jeff Teper	director	C/O AVEPOINT, INC., 525 WASHINGTON BOULEVARD, SUITE 1400, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310
Ho John Chi On	director	C/O JANCHOR PARTNERS, ONE EXCHANGE SQUARE, CENTRAL K3 1608
Apex Technology Sponsor Llc	10 percent owner	533 AIRPORT BLVD SUITE 400, LA JOLLA CA 94010
Peter W Bell	director