Aware (AWRE) Predictability Rank


AWRE Aware Inc AWRE
61 GF Score
Price $1.34
GF Value $1.72
Valuation Modestly Undervalued
! 3 Warning Signs
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What is Aware Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Aware Predictability Rank Related Terms

AWRE
61GF Score
Aware Inc AWRE
Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Aware Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Is Aware (AWRE) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Aware stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of $1.34 is trading 22.1% below its estimated GF Value™ of $1.72. GuruFocus considers Aware to be Modestly Undervalued.

Key valuation signals for AWRE:

  • Predictability Rank:
  • GF Value™: $1.72 vs. price of $1.34 (22.1% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 61/100 with 3 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the AWRE stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Aware Business Description

Address 76 Blanchard Road, Burlington, MA, USA, 01803
Aware Inc provides biometric identity and authentication solutions. Its Awareness Platform transforms biometric data into actionable intelligence, allowing its clients to verify identities and authenticate access and transactions. The company's products span multiple biometric modalities, including fingerprint, face, iris, and voice. It offers: a broad range of biometrics software products and solutions, including platforms like AwareSDK, AwareABIS, AFIX Suite of Products, Awareness Platform, and WebEnroll; software components such as SDKs, APIs, and applications that customers use to develop their systems into more effective solutions; and several program management and software engineering services. Aware earns maximum revenue from the U.S., followed by the UK and the rest of the world.
61GF Score

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Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$1.34
Price
$1.72
GF Value