BlackSky Technology (BlackSky Technology) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2021. Start your Free Trial

What is BlackSky Technology Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

BlackSky Technology Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

BlackSky Technology Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of BlackSky Technology's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

BlackSky Technology (BlackSky Technology) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » BlackSky Technology Inc (NYSE:BKSY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

13241 Woodland Park Road, Suite 300, Herndon, VA, USA, 20171

Website

https://www.blacksky.com

BlackSky Technology Inc is a provider of real-time geospatial intelligence. The company delivers on-demand, high-frequency imagery, monitoring, and analytics of some of the critical and strategic locations, economic assets, and events in the world. It designs, owns, and operates one of the industry's low earth orbit (LEO) small satellite constellations, optimized to capture imagery cost-efficiently where and when its customers need it. its Spectra AI software platform processes data from BlackSky's constellation and from other third-party sensors to develop the critical insights and analytics that provide its customers with the actionable intelligence. Geographically, the company operates in North America, the Middle East, Asia, and Others.

Executives

Tracy Ward	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	3901 STONECROFT BOULEVARD, C/O INTERSECTIONS INC., CHANTILLY VA 20151
Brian E O'toole	director, officer: CEO and President	2325 DULLES CORNER BLVD., HERNDON VA 20171
Henry Edward Dubois	officer: Chief Development Officer	C/O 13241 WOODLAND PARK ROAD, STE 300, HERNDON VA 20171
Christiana L Lin	officer: General Counsel & Corp Sec	11465 SUNSET HILLS ROAD, SUITE 200, RESTON VA 20190
Johan G Broekhuysen	officer: Chief Financial Officer	LUMOS NETWORKS CORP., ONE LUMOS PLAZA, WAYNESBORO VA 22980
Susan M. Gordon	director	C/O CACI INTERNATIONAL, 1100 N. GLEBE ROAD, 3RD FLOOR, ARLINGTON VA 22201
Mithril Lp	10 percent owner	ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING C SUITE 400, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Peter Thiel	10 percent owner	9200 SUNSET BOULEVARD, SUITE 1110, WEST HOLLYWOOD CA 90069
S.a. Thales	10 percent owner	TOUR CARPE DIEM, 31 PLACE, DES COROLLES, ESPLANADE NORD 92400, COURBEVOIE I0 92400
Thales Alenia Space Us Investment Llc	10 percent owner	1209 ORANGE STREET, WILMINGTON DE 19801
Thales Alenia Space S.a.s.	10 percent owner	100 BD DU MIDI - 06150, CANNES LA BOCA I0 06150
Seahawk Spv Investment Llc	10 percent owner	2733 SOUTH CRYSTAL DRIVE, SUITE 1200, ARLINGTON TX 22202
Brian G. Daum	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O BLACKSKY TECHNOLOGY INC, 13241 WOODLAND PARK ROAD, SUITE 300, HERNDON VA 20271
Mithril Gp Lp	10 percent owner	C/O MITHRIL CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC, 600 CONGRESS AVENUE, SUITE 3100, AUSTIN TX 78701
Timothy M. Harvey	director	13241 WOODLAND PARK ROAD, SUITE 300, HERNDON VA 20171