BLDR (Builders FirstSource) Predictability Rank

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What is Builders FirstSource Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Builders FirstSource Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Builders FirstSource Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Builders FirstSource Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » Builders FirstSource Inc (NYSE:BLDR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BLDR:Mexico B1F:Germany B1F:Germany

Address

6031 Connection Drive, Suite 400, Irving, TX, USA, 75039

Website

https://www.bldr.com

Builders FirstSource Inc is a manufacturer and supplier of building materials. The company offers structural and related building products such as factory-built roof and floor trusses, wall panels and stairs, vinyl windows, custom millwork and trim, and engineered wood. The products can be designed for each home individually and are installed by Builders FirstSource. The company's construction-related services include professional installation, turn-key framing, and shell construction. Builders FirstSource's customers range from large production builders to small custom homebuilders.

Executives

David E Rush	officer: SVP - COO - East	2001 BRYAN ST., SUITE 1600, DALLAS TX 75201
Cleveland A Christophe	director	C/O TSG CAPITAL GROUP, 177 BROAD STREET 12 TH FLOOR, STAMFORD CT 06091
Craig Arthur Steinke	director	19 NORFIELD ROAD, WESTON CT 06883
Michael Hiller	officer: President - Central Division	2001 BRYAN ST STE 1600, DALLAS TX 75201
Paul M Mccrobie	officer: President - East Division	2001 BRYAN STREET, SUITE 1600, DALLAS TX 75201
Boydston Cory Jacobs	director	C/O BMC STOCK HOLDINGS, INC., 4800 FALLS OF NEUSE RD, SUITE 400, RALEIGH NC 27617
Michael Alan Farmer	officer: President - Commercial Ops	C/O BMC STOCK HOLDINGS, INC., 4800 FALLS OF NEUSE RD, SUITE 400, RALEIGH NC 27609
Timothy D Johnson	officer: EVP & General Counsel	5020 WESTON PARKWAY, SUITE 400, CARY NC 27513
Jami Lynn Coulter	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	2001 BRYAN ST., SUITE 1600, DALLAS TX 75201
Dirkson R Charles	director	50 MAIN STREET, 4TH FLOOR, WHITE PLAINS NY 10606
Floyd F Sherman	director, officer: President & CEO	BUILDERS FIRSTSOURCE INC., 2001 BRYAN STREET, SUITE 1600, DALLAS TX 75201
Amy B Messersmith	officer: Chief People Officer	2001 BRYAN ST STE 1600, DALLAS TX 75201
James Oleary	director
David W Bullock	director	C/O GRAHAM PACKAGING HOLDINGS COMPANY, 2401 PLEASANT VALLEY ROAD, YORK PA 17402
Mark A Alexander	director	C/O W. P. CAREY INC., 395 9TH AVENUE, 58TH FLOOR, NEW YORK, NEW YORK NY 10001