BLIN (Bridgeline Digital) Predictability Rank

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What is Bridgeline Digital Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bridgeline Digital Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Bridgeline Digital Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Bridgeline Digital Inc (NAS:BLIN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BL43:Germany BL43:Germany

Address

100 Sylvan Road, Suite G700, Woburn, MA, USA, 01801

Website

https://www.bridgeline.com

Bridgeline Digital Inc is a AI-powered marketing technology company that offers a suite of products that help companies grow online revenue by driving more traffic to their websites, converting more visitors to purchasers, and increasing average order value. Company software is available through a cloud-based Software as a Service (SaaS) model. It helps to maximize the performance of critical websites, intranets, and online stores. The company generates revenue from digital engagement services, subscription, perpetual licenses, maintenance, and hosting. Geographically, it derives a majority of revenue from the United States.

Executives

Roger E. Kahn	officer: PRESIDENT AND CEO	C/O BRIDGELINE DIGITAL, INC., 80 BLANCHARD ROAD, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Joni Kahn	director
Michael N Taglich	director, 10 percent owner	TAGLICH BROTHERS INC, 1370 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS --31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 6317254791
Thomas R. Windhausen	officer: CFO and Treasurer	C/O BRIDGELINE DIGITAL, INC., 100 SYLVAN RD SUITE G700, WOBURN MA 01801
Mark G. Downey	officer: Chief Financial Officer	135 FIFTH AVENUE, FLOOR 10, NEW YORK NY 10010
Seevolution, Inc.	10 percent owner	251 LITTLE FALLS DRIVE, WILMINGTON DE 19808
Carole Ann Tyner	officer: CFO	9 ELDERBERRY WAY, WESTFORD MA 01886
Michael Prinn	officer: VP Finance and CAO	C/O BRIDGELINE DIGITAL, INC., 10 SIXTH ROAD, WOBURN MA 01801
Robert Taglich	director	700 NEW YORK AVENUE, HUNTINGTON NY 11743
John C Cavalier	director	6 SCHUYLER MEADOWS ROAD, LOUDONVILLE NY 12211
Thomas L Massie	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO	130 NEW BOSTON STREET, WOBURN MA 01801
Westland Ventures, Llc	10 percent owner	354 QUAKER ROAD, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Robert M Hegarty	director	18 MORTON ROAD, ARLINGTON MA 02476
Kenneth Galaznik	director	C/O AMERICAN SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING,INC, 829 MIDDLESEX TURNPIKE, BILLERICA MA 01821
Scott E Landers	director	C/O MONOTYPE IMAGING INC., 500 UNICORN PARK DRIVE, WOBURN MA 01801