BNL (Broadstone Net Lease) Predictability Rank

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What is Broadstone Net Lease Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Broadstone Net Lease Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Broadstone Net Lease Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Broadstone Net Lease Inc (NYSE:BNL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

62XA:Germany

Address

207 High Point Drive, Suite 300, Victor, NY, USA, 14564

Website

https://www.broadstone.com

Broadstone Net Lease Inc is an internally managed real estate investment trust that invests in, owns, and manages single-tenant commercial real estate properties that are net leased on a long-term basis to a diversified group of tenants. The company has selectively invested in net leased assets in the industrial, healthcare, restaurant, retail, and office property types. The company focuses on investing in real estate that is operated by creditworthy single tenants in industries characterized by positive business drivers and trends. The company targets properties that are an integral part of the tenants' businesses and are therefore opportunities to secure long-term net leases.

Executives

Molly Wiegel	officer: SVP - Human Resources	BROADSTONE NET LEASE, INC., 800 CLINTON SQUARE, ROCHESTER NY 14604
Shekar Narasimhan	director	1593 SPRING HILL RD, SUITE 400, VIENNA VA 22182
Michael A Coke	director	TERRENO REALTY CORPORATION, 101 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 200, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Kevin Fennell	officer: SVP - Capital Markets	BROADSTONE NET LEASE, INC., 800 CLINTON SQUARE, ROCHESTER NY 14604
John David Moragne	officer: See Remarks	800 CLINTON SQUARE, ROCHESTER NY 14604
Ryan M Albano	officer: See Remarks	800 CLINTON SQUARE, ROCHESTER NY 14604
Michael B. Caruso	officer: SVP, Finance	BROADSTONE NET LEASE, INC., 800 CLINTON SQUARE, ROCHESTER NY 14604
Roderick Pickney	officer: SVP - Acquisitions	BROADSTONE NET LEASE, INC., 800 CLINTON SQUARE, ROCHESTER NY 14604
Jennie O'brien	officer: SVP - Accounting & Controller	BROADSTONE NET LEASE, INC., 800 CLINTON SQUARE, ROCHESTER NY 14604
Jessica Duran	director	BROADSTONE NET LEASE, INC., 800 CLINTON SQUARE, ROCHESTER NY 14604
Laura L. Felice	director	C/O BJ'S WHOLESALE CLUB, INC., 350 CAMPUS DRIVE, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752
Lessard Laurier J Jr	officer: SVP - Asset Management	BROADSTONE NET LEASE, INC., 800 CLINTON SQUARE, ROCHESTER NY 14604
Denise Brooks-williams	director	BROADSTONE NET LEASE, INC., 800 CLINTON SQUARE, ROCHESTER NY 14604
Andrea T. Wright	officer: SVP, Property Management	BROADSTONE NET LEASE, INC., 800 CLINTON SQUARE, ROCHESTER NY 14604
Kristen Duckles	officer: SVP & Chief Admin. Officer	BROADSTONE NET LEASE, INC., 800 CLINTON SQUARE, ROCHESTER NY 14604