BZFD (BuzzFeed) Predictability Rank

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What is BuzzFeed Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

BuzzFeed Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

BuzzFeed Predictability Rank Related Terms

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BuzzFeed Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Interactive Media » BuzzFeed Inc (NAS:BZFD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

229 West 43rd Street, New York, NY, USA, 10036

Website

https://www.buzzfeed.com

BuzzFeed Inc is a tech-powered, diversified media company that reaches hundreds of millions globally through its cross-platform news and entertainment network. The company produces articles, lists, quizzes, videos, and original series; lifestyle content through brands including Tasty, social food network; original reporting and investigative journalism through BuzzFeed News and HuffPost; an industry- affiliate business, strategic partnerships, licensing and product development through BuzzFeed Commerce; and original productions across broadcast, cable, SVOD, film and digital platforms for BuzzFeed Studios.

Executives

Patrick J Kerins	director
New Enterprise Associates 13 Lp	10 percent owner	1119 ST PAUL STREET, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Janet L Rolle	director	75 WEST 125TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10027
Johnson John S. Iii	other: Member of 10% Group	C/O CRM MANAGEMENT, PO BOX 778, NEW YORK NY 10013
Comcast Corp	10 percent owner	ONE COMCAST CENTER, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103-2838
Matthew Omer	officer: CFO	C/O BUZZFEED, INC., 229 W. 43RD ST., NEW YORK NY 10036
Joan Lordi Amble	director	AMERICAN EXPRESS COMPANY, 200 VESEY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10285
David Arroyo	officer: Chief Legal Officer	229 W. 43RD ST., NEW YORK NY 10036
Daniel Weinstein	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O BUZZFEED, INC., 229 W. 43RD ST., NEW YORK NY 10036
Marcela Martin	officer: President	C/O SQUARESPACE, INC., 225 VARICK STREET, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Johnson Bf, Llc	other: Member of 10% Group	C/O CRM MANAGEMENT, PO BOX 778, NEW YORK NY 10013
Adam Rothstein	director, officer: Executive Chairman	101 CROSS HWY, WESTPORT CA 92610
Gregory Coleman	director	C/O MEREDITH CORP., 1716 LOCUST STREET, DES MOINES IA 50309
Phuong Dao Nguyen	officer: Publisher	C/O BUZZFEED, INC., 111 EAST 18TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10003
Christian Baesler	officer: Chief Operating Officer	111 EAST 18TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10003