CABO (Cable One) Predictability Rank

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What is Cable One Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cable One Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Cable One Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Cable One Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Telecommunication Services » Cable One Inc (NYSE:CABO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

XC1:Germany C1AB34:Brazil

Address

210 E. Earll Drive, Phoenix, AZ, USA, 85012

Website

https://www.sparklight.com

Cable One Inc. is a telecommunications company that generates revenue from providing broadband, voice, and video services to both residential and business customers. From a product standpoint, the majority of revenue comes from data and video services, which are subscription-based and billed monthly. The company also offers Sparklight TV, an Internet Protocol Television (IPTV) service that enables customers using the Sparklight TV app to stream video channels from the cloud. Additionally, the company earns advertising revenue by selling airtime on its video channels, and it provides voice services over Internet protocols. Cable One Inc. owns its telecommunications infrastructure.

Executives

Wallace R Weitz	director	210 E. EARLL DRIVE, PHOENIX AZ 85012
Peter N. Witty	officer: See Remarks	CABLE ONE, 210 E. EARLL DRIVE, PHOENIX AZ 85012
Christopher D Boone	officer: See Remarks	210 E EARLL DR, C/O CABLE ONE, INC., PHOENIX AZ 85012
Thomas O. Might	director, officer: Chairman and CEO	210 E. EARLL DRIVE, PHOENIX AZ 85012
Matthew Armstrong	officer: SVP Residential Services	210 E EARLL DRIVE, PHOENIX AZ 85012
P Robert Bartolo	director	1220 AUGUSTA DRIVE, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77057
Eric Michael Lardy	officer: SVP	C/O CABLE ONE, INC., 210 E. EARLL DRIVE, PHOENIX AZ 85012
Thomas Sinnickson Gayner	director	C/O MARKEL CORP, 4521 HIGHWOODS PARKWAY, GLEN ALLEN VA 23060
Brad D. Brian	director	C/O CABLE ONE, INC., 210 E. EARLL DRIVE, PHOENIX AZ 85012
James A Obermeyer	officer: SVP, Marketing & Sales	C/O CABLE ONE, INC., 210 E EARLL DR, PHOENIX AZ 85012
Steven Scott Cochran	officer: SVP	C/O WIDEOPENWEST, INC., 7887 EAST BELLEVIEW AVENUE, SUITE 1000, ENGLEWOOD CO 80111
Julia M. Laulis	officer: President and COO	210 E. EARLL DRIVE, PHOENIX AZ 85012
Todd M Koetje	officer: See Remarks	CABLE ONE, INC., 210 E EARLL DR, PHOENIX AZ 85012
Margaret Masoner Detz	officer: SVP, Human Resources	C/O CABLE ONE, INC., 210 E EARLL DR, PHOENIX AZ 85012
Katharine Weymouth	director	1300 NORTH 17TH STREET, SUITE 1700, ARLINGTON VA 22209