CALC (CalciMedica) Predictability Rank

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What is CalciMedica Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CalciMedica Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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CalciMedica Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » CalciMedica Inc (NAS:CALC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

505 Coast Boulevard South, Suite 307, La Jolla, CA, USA, 92037

Website

https://www.calcimedica.com

CalciMedica Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing therapies for life-threatening inflammatory diseases with high unmet need. Its proprietary technology targets the inhibition of calcium release-activated calcium channels designed to modulate the immune response and protect against tissue cell injury, with the potential to provide therapeutic benefits in life-threatening inflammatory diseases for which there are no approved therapies.

Executives

Fred A Middleton	director, 10 percent owner	400 SOUTH EL CAMINO REAL STE 1200, SAN MATEO CA 94402-1708
A. Rachel Leheny	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O ANTHERA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 25801 INDUSTRIAL BOULEVARD, SUITE B, HAYWARD CA 94545
Robert N Wilson	director	C/O JOHNSON & JOHNSON, ONE JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Sanderling Venture Partners Vi Co Investment Fund Lp	10 percent owner	1300 S EL CAMINO REAL SUITE 203, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Eric W Roberts	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Business Officer	VALENCE LIFE SCIENCES LLC, 500 PARK AVENUE 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Sudarshan Hebbar	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O CALCIMEDICA, INC., 505 COAST BOULEVARD SOUTH, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Eric Bjerkholt	director	132 PURDURE AVENUE, KENGSINGTON CA 94708
Sanderling Ventures Vii (canada), L.p.	10 percent owner	1300 S. EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 203, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Sanderling Ventures Management Vi	10 percent owner	1300 S EL CAMINO REAL SUITE 203, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Sanderling Vi Beteiligungs Gmbh & Co Kg	10 percent owner	1300 S EL CAMINO REAL SUITE 203, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Sanderling Vi Limited Partnership	10 percent owner	1300 S EL CAMINO REAL SUITE 203, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Sanderling Venture Partners Vi Lp	10 percent owner	1300 S EL CAMINO REAL SUITE 203, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Allan Shaw	director	C/O CELSUS THERAPEUTICS PLC, 24 WEST 40TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10018
Michael J. Dunn	officer: President and COO	C/O CALCIMEDICA, INC., 505 COAST BOULEVARD SOUTH, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Kenneth A. Stauderman	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O CALCIMEDICA, INC., 505 COAST BOULEVARD SOUTH, LA JOLLA CA 92037