CART (Maplebear) Predictability Rank

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What is Maplebear Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Maplebear Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Maplebear Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Maplebear Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Maplebear Inc (NAS:CART) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

50 Beale Street, Suite 600, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94105

Website

https://www.instacart.com

Maplebear (Instacart) operates a leading grocery delivery platform in the United States and Canada. The company partners with various regional and national grocers, which offer their selection of food and other goods to customers through Instacart's ubiquitous platform. Once an item is ordered through Instacart's site, the item is picked and delivered to the customer's home by one of the platform's 600,000 shoppers, who are classified as independent contractors. Instacart earns fees based on average order value and leverages its platform's high usage to sell advertising, mainly to consumer-packaged goods companies. Instacart currently has about 8 million monthly active users (or orderers) on its platform.

Executives

Fidji Simo	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O SHOPIFY, INC., 151 O'CONNOR STREET, GROUND FLOOR, OTTAWA Z4 K2P 2L8
Morgan Fong	officer: General Counsel & Secretary	C/O MAPLEBEAR INC., 50 BEALE STREET, SUITE 600, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Alan Ramsay	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O YELP INC., 140 NEW MONTGOMERY ST., 9TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Nick Giovanni	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O MAPLEBEAR INC., 50 BEALE STREET, SUITE 600, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Sequoia Capital Global Growth Fund Ii, L.p.	10 percent owner	2800 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Sc Us (ttgp), Ltd.	10 percent owner	2800 SAND HILL RD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Sequoia Capital U.s. Venture Partners Fund Xiv (q), L.p.	10 percent owner	2800 SAND HILL RD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Ravi Gupta	director, 10 percent owner	2800 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Jeffrey D Jordan	director	2865 SAND HILL ROAD #101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Sequoia Capital Us/e Expansion Fund I, L.p.	10 percent owner	2800 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Grosvenor Capital Management, L.p.	other: See Explanation of Responses	900 NORTH MICHIGAN AVENUE, SUITE 1100, CHICAGO IL 60611
Gcm Special Opportunities Master Fund, Ltd.	other: See Explanation of Responses	PO BOX 309 UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
D1 Capital Partners L.p.	director, 10 percent owner, other: See Remarks	9 WEST 57TH STREET, 36TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Gcm Grosvenor Inc.	other: See Explanation of Responses	900 NORTH MICHIGAN AVENUE, SUITE 1100, CHICAGO IL 60611
Apoorva Mehta	10 percent owner	C/O MAPLEBEAR INC., 50 BEALE STREET, SUITE 600, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105