C4 Therapeutics (C4 Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is C4 Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

C4 Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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C4 Therapeutics (C4 Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » C4 Therapeutics Inc (NAS:CCCC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

490 Arsenal Way, Suite 120, Watertown, MA, USA, 02472

Website

https://www.c4therapeutics.com

C4 Therapeutics Inc is a biopharmaceutical company advancing targeted protein degradation science to develop a new generation of small-molecule medicines to transform how the disease is treated. Its TORPEDO platform enables the discovery of a new class of targeted investigational small-molecule medicines called protein degraders.

Executives

Mark Mossler	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C4 THERAPEUTICS, INC., 490 ARSENAL WAY, SUITE 120, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Kendra Adams	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C4 THERAPEUTICS, INC., 490 ARSENAL WAY, SUITE 120, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Leonard Reyno	officer: Chief Medical Officer	607 NORTH LAS PALMAS AVENUE, LOS ANGELES CA 90004
Utpal Koppikar	director	C/O ATARA BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC., 611 GATEWAY BLVD, SUITE 900, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Donna Roy Grogan	director	1133 OLD QUEEN ANNE ROAD, CHATHAM MA 02633
Laura Bessen	director	4747 EXECUTIVE DRIVE, SUITE 1150, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Andrew Hirsch	director, officer: See Remarks	C/O BIND THERAPEUTICS, INC., 325 VASSAR ST, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Kelly Schick	officer: Chief People Officer	C/O AMAG PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 1100 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Scott N Boyle	officer: Chief Business Officer	C4 THERAPEUTICS, INC., 490 ARSENAL WAY, SUITE 200, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Malcolm Salter	director	C4 THERAPEUTICS, INC., 490 ARSENAL WAY, SUITE 200, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Adam Crystal	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C4 THERAPEUTICS, INC., 490 ARSENAL WAY, SUITE 200, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Elena Prokupets	director	C4 THERAPEUTICS, INC., 490 ARSENAL WAY, SUITE 200, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Jolie Siegel	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O NEON THERAPEUTICS, INC., 40 ERIE ST., SUITE 110, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Stewart Fisher	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C4 THERAPEUTICS, INC., 490 ARSENAL WAY, SUITE 200, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Lauren White	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C4 THERAPEUTICS, INC., 490 ARSENAL WAY, SUITE 200, WATERTOWN MA 02472